CLEVELAND, Ohio -- At first, Vegas thought the Browns should be favored by 6.5 points in Week 17 at home versus the newly crowned AFC North Steelers. Mike Tomlin hadn’t said whether he’d rest any starters yet but it seemed like a fair line.
Tuesday afternoon that all changed. Tomlin announced third-year quarterback Mason Rudolph would start, giving the 38-year-old Ben Roethlisberger his first full week of rest since August. That change pushed the Browns from 6.5-point favorites to 10.
Remember, the Steelers have not had a full bye week all season. Pittsburgh’s original bye was Week 8. But when the Titans had their COVID-19 outbreak it forced the league to move Tennessee’s Week 4 game against the Steelers to Week 8.
On paper that sounds simple. But in reality, it was a logistical worst-case scenario for a veteran-filled Pittsburgh team. Think about it. The Steelers practiced all week in preparation for the Titans only to find out a few days prior the game was postponed.
Basically, their bye week lasted two days instead of one week. Pittsburgh’s roster includes 10 players over 30 years old. Three starting offensive linemen (Alejandro Villanueva, David DeCastro, Maurkice Pouncey), cornerback Joe Haden and and defensive lineman Cam Heyward all could use rest like Big Ben, but it sounds like they’ll play.
However, I wouldn’t be surprised if that changes. For example, Tomlin said, “given an opportunity to airmail a player or two to the postseason, we will.”
He went on to only name Roethlisberger and added the majority of starters will play. Notice that leaves wiggle room. For example, T.J. Watt playing a full game would not surprise me. He’s 26 and in a race against Aaron Donald for defensive player of the year.
But sitting a few older linemen seems logical. We probably won’t know Tomlin’s full plan until Sunday. It’s also unclear what the Steelers’ offense will look like with Rudolph in shotgun.
Roethlisberger leads the league in pass attempts with 608. That averages out to about 40 throws per game. Is it a good idea for Tomlin to give Myles Garrett 40 chances at sacking Rudolph? Probably not. However, the last full game Rudolph started he threw it 44 times, in a 21-7 loss at FirstEnergy Stadium. He completed 53 percent of his passes and was intercepted four times.
Handing the ball to James Conner probably isn’t the solution either. Despite Conner’s career-long success versus Cleveland (including a 100-yard Week 6 performance), the Steelers are last in rushing yards per game (84.3) and 28th in rushing attempts per game (23).
Pittsburgh is so bad at rushing that the 31st and 30th ranked teams (Texans and Lions) average seven yards more per contest.
How will the Steelers’ offense try to best the Browns’ defense? It’s unclear. But considering the history between these two teams and the fact this is the National Football League, a Browns’ victory won’t come easy.
Be careful Browns bettors. Covering a 10-point spread won’t be easy either.
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New Browns face masks for sale: Here’s where you can buy Cleveland Browns-themed face coverings for coronavirus protection for adults and youth, including a single mask ($14.99) and a 3-pack ($24.99). All NFL proceeds donated to CDC Foundation.
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