Boys and girls, the 2021 NFL Draft is upon us. The day is finally here. Commissioner Roger Goodell is readying himself for one of the most exciting and hopeful nights of the offseason calendar. And so are we, complete with a couple of bold predictions for the first round of action. We can't guarantee these will go down once the draft gets underway at 8 p.m. ET (can anyone guarantee anything on draft night, save for a Trevor Lawrence announcement in Jacksonville?), but we've got a gut feeling they might.
We present five bold predictions for Day One of the draft:
1. The 49ers will not take Mac Jones at No. 3
Not sure if this qualifies as "bold" these days, what with everyone and their mother trying to get a read on whether the Jones buzz is real or contrived. But here's this guy's read: Kyle Shanahan probably likes Jones aplenty, and he'd be more than comfortable plugging him in as a younger, more accurate version of Jimmy Garoppolo. But the drop off from Jones to Justin Fields or Trey Lance in terms of high-efficiency traits is either minimal or nonexistent. Meanwhile, the drop off in dynamic athleticism from Fields or Lance to Jones is substantial. It only makes sense that San Francisco will take the potential home run over the supposedly assured base hit.
2. The Patriots will not end the night without a new QB
Did New England spend out the wazoo this offseason solely to give Cam Newton -- at best a mediocre passer for a half-decade now -- another shot to headline their post-Tom Brady restructure? We tend to think Bill Belichick is smarter than that. Newton was far from the only issue with the 2020 Pats, and an improved supporting cast demands he'll be better in 2021, but that cannot and should not be enough. Whether it's finding a sliding prospect at No. 15, going all in for a move into the top 10, dropping back or dealing back in for Davis Mills, and/or landing a veteran (e.g. Jimmy Garoppolo), they need at least one more body under center.
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3. Davis Mills will be drafted (likely on a trade back in)
The "mystery QB" thing -- where one outside the top crop gets hyped as a potential first-rounder -- happens every year but only occasionally delivers. (Think Drew Lock, who was a speculated top-10 target before falling to No. 42; Mason Rudolph, an apparent late-first possibility who fell to No. 76; or DeShone Kizer, a one-time top-five projection who went No. 52). But if ever there were a year for a team to seize upon the uncertainty of the late first and snag a fifth-year option in a class with a deep Day Two pool at other spots like OL, WR and DE, it would be now. Mills is extremely raw with only 11 games on his resume, but that defect isn't stopping Jones or Lance from going early. Someone (the Bears? Patriots? Washington?) can talk themselves into his size and arm to swoop in early.
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4. The Chargers will trade into the top 10
This necessitates just a three-pick jump for Los Angeles, which currently sits at No. 13. But it'd still be a potentially costly endeavor, though a justified one for general manager Tom Telesco, who isn't afraid to make a bold leap when he's actually looking to move. The Chargers' first priority is protecting Justin Herbert, and that means top tackles Penei Sewell and Rashawn Slater will be in their sights. If one or both slide past the Bengals at No. 5, they will assuredly be on the phones. The question is where they try to move: No. 7 (Detroit), No. 8 (Panthers), No. 10 (Cowboys)? It just feels as if they're primed to do what it takes for a bookend.
5. The Steelers will not take a RB at No. 24
Typically, this kind of thing would be a no-brainer. But most people, Pittsburgh media included, have seemingly fallen in line with the perception that the Steelers are bent on correcting the ground game right off the bat. We have no doubt they want a running back, perhaps even in the first. But unless you're sold that Najee Harris or Javonte Williams or Travis Etienne is singularly a game-changing star-in-the-making, what on Earth dictates that you address the position at No. 24 rather than after a slight trade back, even just out of the first? The Steelers are regularly in the postseason mix because they often draft smartly. And odds are there will be way too many starting-caliber offensive linemen or edge rushers or even linebackers to pass up in this spot.
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