It's finally NFL draft week, and the 2021 class is exciting. We have five high-end quarterbacks who could all be selected in the top 10. We have tons of offensive playmakers worthy of early picks. We have difference-makers on defense, especially at cornerback. And we've already seen three trades involving first-round picks since the beginning of the month, including a late-Day 1 move by the Baltimore Ravens on Friday.
But what is actually going to happen on Thursday, Friday and Saturday? Which draft prospects do teams with top picks like? Who is moving up draft boards? And when should we expect the quarterbacks to be selected?
I've been talking with general managers, coaches, execs, scouts and other evaluators around the league to get the most recent buzz on how each team might use their draft picks and who each team likes more than others. Of course, we won't know exactly what will happen until the clock starts ticking on Thursday night -- there are big surprises every year -- and you can always expect some smoke screens at this stage, but we are starting to get a good idea of what to expect once the draft kicks off.
Here's what I'm hearing around the league and the current direction that the wind is blowing for teams with top-10 picks and a handful of other franchises with intrigue around their selections. Plus, we check in with the quarterback outlook and other prospects who are getting a lot of buzz in the final days before the draft.
Jump to:
Top 10 | Other teams of interest
The QBs | Prospect buzz
The top 10 picks
Obviously, no change here. What we've known will happen all along is just four days from coming to fruition. The Jaguars did their due diligence with all of the top five signal-callers in the class -- as they should have -- but they are ready to select Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence as their franchise guy.
Jacksonville coach Urban Meyer said it's not just the size, mobility and arm talent with Lawrence but also his unique twitchiness. Meyer's offenses like to get the ball out quickly and into the hands of playmakers in space, and Lawrence's sudden footwork and quick release are rare for a guy that big (6-foot-6). It's a major reason the team is especially excited to have the opportunity to bring Lawrence in and build around him.
Let's also not forget that Jacksonville has five picks in the top 65, including another first-rounder. And I can say this: Expect a lot of offense here. There is an emphasis around protecting Lawrence and giving him talented playmakers. When a team has this kind of opportunity -- selecting a generational talent at QB -- it has to maximize that investment, and it wouldn't surprise me to see three or four of those five Day 1 and Day 2 picks go to that side of the ball.
I fully expect BYU quarterback Zach Wilson to be the Jets' pick at No. 2, just as we've all predicted for a while now. NFL teams I've talked to love his off-platform ability and accuracy on the move, but there is also a lot of love inside the league for the way he thinks about the game. Specifically, that means Wilson's recall during games and his understanding of what defenses are trying to do to scheme against him.
The 49ers moved up from No. 12 to No. 3 with a massive trade at the end of March, which all but locked them into a QB in Round 1. Teams don't salvage their futures and jump nine spots into the top five to do anything else. But which quarterback will it be?
I'm told that many in the 49ers' personnel department have pushed for North Dakota State QB Trey Lance but that coach Kyle Shanahan wants to draft Alabama's Mac Jones. One person I spoke to even heard that Shanahan might "acquiesce" to the scouting department on the selection, but others have said that seems unlikely. At this time of year, there is a lot of seed planting with the rumor mill, and it could certainly be the case here.
What we do know is the first three picks will be quarterbacks, and it appears more than likely that Jones with be that No. 3 selection.
1:15
Todd McShay breaks down the potential fit of quarterback Mac Jones with the 49ers.
I'm getting a strong reading that the Falcons like Florida tight end Kyle Pitts as the fourth selection. He'd of course be a game-changer in that offense, and the organization believes he has a great chance to be a Hall of Fame type of player.
The wild card? Some are wondering if team owner Arthur Blank might step in and decide this pick has to be a QB. Atlanta might not be drafting this high again for a while, and it's a chance to potentially set the team up at the position for the next decade. It'd be the macro line of thinking, versus the micro. But again, the preference I'm hearing is Pitts.
I also heard the Falcons are fielding calls regarding trading out and would consider moving down the board. If that becomes the case, would it be for someone like Northwestern offensive tackle Rashawn Slater or USC guard Alijah Vera-Tucker? Or could the Falcons trade back and see one of those top quarterbacks still available when they do end up picking? The value and opportunity might be too good to pass up at that point. In that scenario, Atlanta will have moved back and acquired other assets and still landed its QB of the future. That's a pretty good outcome.
Will it be an offensive tackle or a playmaker? Well, from what I'm hearing, the lean is to the former. It sounds like Oregon tackle Penei Sewell is the favorite here, followed by Kyle Pitts and LSU wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase. And the Bengals will get one of them. Ultimately, it's team owner Mike Brown's decision, and he has certainly surprised us before, but Sewell-Pitts-Chase sounds like the current plan at No. 5. Cincinnati still needs to better protect quarterback Joe Burrow, despite the add of lineman Riley Reiff, and Sewell could team up with 2019 first-rounder Jonah Williams to form a fierce OT duo.
The focus here, to no one's surprise, is on a pass-catcher. Miami knows it has to give quarterback Tua Tagovailoa more weapons to find success. That started with signing Will Fuller V in free agency, and it continues here with one at No. 6. I've heard that Kyle Pitts is the favorite if still available, followed by Ja'Marr Chase. Then it's a tight battle between Alabama wideouts DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. It will come down to how the board plays out.
0:47
Field Yates says not having an NFL combine is making it harder for scouts to fully gauge players' potential for the upcoming draft.
Like the Dolphins, the Lions are looking pass-catcher here; and like the Dolphins, they seem to prefer Kyle Pitts, Ja'Marr Chase and then the Alabama duo. Detroit is likely to have at most two of those players to pick between here to jump-start its now barren pass-catcher group.
The Lions did just use a top-10 pick on tight end T.J. Hockenson in 2019, so another tight end being in the mix might be confusing; but remember that Pitts can be flexed all over the formation and is far from a traditional tight end. Still, it's more likely that this pick comes down to the three wideouts, based on how the board is shaping up.
OK, now it gets interesting. The direction of this pick could end up surprising a lot of people, and I've heard a few different directions it could go. The first might be the most eyebrow-raising.
One GM and one scout -- neither affiliated with the Panthers -- told me that they've heard the Panthers could be lurking at No. 8 in the quarterback market. Yes, even after trading for Sam Darnold earlier this month, and yes, with Teddy Bridgewater also still on the roster as competition. Ohio State's Justin Fields' name was tossed around as the guy in mind.
The thinking is Darnold has a cap hit south of $5 million for 2021 -- extremely cheap for a starter -- and the Panthers could see how he plays this season and then go from there. If Darnold shines, they have a good problem: having to decide which QB to build around and which to attempt to move. If he doesn't, they already have a young replacement with potential on the roster. It's also worth pointing out Carolina doesn't have to pick up Darnold's fifth-year option for 2022 until after the draft, leaving it more flexibility.
Two things to remember here, though: It's smoke screen season, and this came from evaluators outside the Panthers organization based on what they were told; and it's entirely possible that Carolina is only floating this notion to bait a team such as Denver, New England, Washington or Chicago to move up for a king's ransom.
If it's not a QB or a trade, wide receiver appears to be the thought. If Kyle Pitts goes to Atlanta and Ja'Marr Chase goes to Miami, Carolina would likely be focusing in on whichever of DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle the Lions don't select at No. 7.
And one last note: I've been told the Panthers prefer Penei Sewell of the top two tackles and are not as high on Rashawn Slater as other teams might be. But that came from another team's GM, which is perhaps more evidence of trying to throw everyone off the scent.
Frankly, there isn't anything solid coming out of Denver's camp. Another team's GM mentioned hearing Denver could be looking to move up for a QB, potentially as high as No. 4 overall, if a deal came together. Ultimately, the Broncos could either watch other teams jump up for Mac Jones, Justin Fields or Trey Lance, or they could do it themselves. But I personally still think Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons fits too well with what the Broncos need on defense.
There has been some talk thrown around about a Dallas trade up and Kyle Pitts. From what I understand from a source, it would take a massive, massive overpay to move from No. 10 to No. 4 and make it happen. I don't see it going that way.
The strongest information that I've heard is that Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain II will be the pick at No. 10. He'd give Dallas a shutdown press corner. If Surtain is already off the board, a move back could be in play, per a different source. The Cowboys could slide back four, five or maybe even six spots and still end up with either South Carolina's Jaycee Horn or Virginia Tech's Caleb Farley as their cornerback of choice ... and some additional picks.
Other intriguing teams with first-round picks
A lot of people around the league believe the Eagles could be a wild card in the first round. The Eagles are apparently tossing out feelers to QB-needy teams that might want to move up to No. 12 if one of the top five quarterbacks is still on the board when it's the Eagles' turn to draft. But I've also heard that there's some interest in Justin Fields within the organization. But logistically, that's usually part of the trade-back smoke screen. If you want a team to move up, you'll of course toss it out there that you might be interested in a quarterback, as well. Pay close attention to what Philadelphia does here; it could get interesting.
Two separate sources within the league (not inside the Patriots organization) said New England is more likely to move back than up based on pre-draft conversations. So no, it doesn't sound like the Patriots are going up the board to get a QB. And like we all already know, moving back is more in line with what coach Bill Belichick likes to do on draft day.
One additional thought: Could we see the fifth QB fall this far? It's possible. But if New England is truly not in love with one of the top five signal-callers and won't make the trade up, we could see Washington and Chicago racing up to get whoever is still there, be it Mac Jones, Trey Lance or Justin Fields.
6:59
Adam Schefter looks at what goes into teams looking to trade up in the NFL draft, especially when there are highly coveted QBs available.
This isn't exactly new information, but one evaluator from outside the Pittsburgh organization said there's buzz around running back and offensive line here, with Alabama ball carrier Najee Harris getting some whispers as the best fit.
The Ravens now have a pair of selections late in Round 1, and I'm told they are definitely targeting a wide receiver with one of them. I'd be very surprised if a WR isn't one of those two picks. The other one could address the edge rush or offensive tackle.
One thing I've heard from a lot of people is Clemson's Travis Etienne has become the most coveted running back in the class -- ahead of Najee Harris -- because of the different element he brings with his explosive home run ability. And a GM whom I spoke with said he heard Buffalo might be tempted to move up from No. 30 into the early 20s to land Etienne. That'd put the Bills ahead of the Steelers, Jaguars, Jets and other teams that could think about an RB in the later segment of Day 1.
But a move up eight or nine spots for a running back in Round 1 would be really costly. It'd be one of the biggest surprises of the entire night.
The latest on the quarterback class
There has been plenty of debate about how the top five quarterbacks stack up against each other. At this point, the only true consensus ranking is Trevor Lawrence at No. 1.
Almost all -- not all -- teams have Zach Wilson at No. 2. Then it is all over the board for Mac Jones, Trey Lance and Justin Fields. That doesn't just mean from a team-versus-team standpoint. There are differing opinions within each organization. I've heard that multiple teams have split decisions on rankings, with the team owner preferring one of them, the GM liking another, the head coach leaning another direction and so on. And I've heard all three of Jones, Lance and Fields mentioned as at least a team's No. 3 quarterback in the class.
What about beyond those five? Two people from around the league indicated a growing interest in Stanford's Davis Mills. One even said that if there is a surprise pick in Round 1, it could be Mills. But it's clear that there is more love for Mills than many people thought, which is surprising for a guy who only started 11 games in college.
I also was told by a GM that Mills, Kyle Trask (Florida) and Kellen Mond (Texas A&M) are all very likely to come off the board by the end of Round 2. The teams that he has heard with interest in at least one of the trio include Washington, Chicago, New England and potentially Denver, if it doesn't take a QB at No. 9 overall.
Other player buzz
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Leaguewide, teams seem to agree that Travis Etienne, Najee Harris and Javonte Williams (North Carolina) are the top three running backs, in some order, and then there is a significant drop-off. Those three could all go in the later parts of Round 1 or early on Day 2, though NFL teams have those three RBs ranked in different ways. Some have Etienne No. 1 at the position. Some are more interested in Harris' game. And at least one team has Williams ahead of Harris, meaning Williams isn't the de facto third guy.
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I haven't spoken to a single decision-maker in the past week who doesn't have Ole Miss' Elijah Moore as that team's No. 4 wide receiver in the class. Most seem to have Ja'Marr Chase first, and then DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle are in some order at No. 2 and No. 3. But Moore is getting buzz and appears set to be the fourth wideout drafted.
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Three GMs said they are convinced that offensive linemen are going to come off board quicker than earlier thought. Two offensive tackles who have been mentioned as guys who could go higher than expected: Notre Dame's Liam Eichenberg might sneak into Round 1, and North Dakota State's Dillon Radunz could be off the board not long after.
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One name that keeps coming up and is getting a wide variety of reviews is Texas tackle/guard Samuel Cosmi. Some teams are fixating on the measurables and potential, and they are thinking he is worthy of a pick early in Round 2. Others are looking more closely at the tape and see him as a third-rounder.
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Another guy to watch: Wisconsin-Whitewater guard Quinn Meinerz. He is getting a lot of love, and the consensus on him that I've gotten is late in Round 2 or early in Round 3.
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