If you just drafted your fantasy football team, you’re probably not looking to make any alterations. You’re still in the honeymoon phase with each value and sleeper selected, and you’re ready to start Week 1 with this infallible squad.
However, not everyone has that choice. Those who drafted earlier already must scour the waiver wire to replace Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, or Travis Etienne Jr. It also might have been too soon for anyone to pounce on the preseason flavors of the weeks now drawing ample buzz. Or maybe you just need to add a defense or *sighs* a kicker.
Anyone who has played fantasy football understands the importance of finding waiver-wire gems early. James Robinson and Justin Jefferson shifted league outlooks last season. In leagues where they went undrafted, they didn’t stay available for long.
The following players are far more likely to fall by the wayside than change the trajectory of 2021 leagues, but it only takes one uncovered gem to spark a title run.
Note: Rostered percentages provided via Yahoo leagues.
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Top 5 Waiver Targets of Week 1
Jakobi Meyers (WR – NE): 54% Rostered
It’s not the best precedent to make the season’s first pick a player already rostered in a majority of Yahoo leagues. Let’s make an exception, if only to highlight Meyers for those drafting later this week.
Meyers led the Patriots in targets (81) and receptions (59) despite receiving only one target in 22 snaps through Week 6. He averaged 72.2 receiving yards on 8.0 targets in the final 10 games. RotoViz’s Sam Wallace noted the elite target share Meyers notched during this timeframe:
From Week 7 through the end of last year, wide receiver Jakobi Meyers saw 30% of the Patriots targets. That was good for WR3 during that stretch, behind only Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs.
— Sam Wallace (@SWallace_FF) September 5, 2021
Without a single receiving touchdown (he did, however, throw two), Meyers went undrafted earlier in the summer. That changes the more he impressed during the preseason. The 24-year-old should open the season as the top target for rookie Mac Jones, a precision passer more equipped to feed the sure-handed possession receiver. Meyers has the makings of a high-floor WR3 or 4 in PPR formats.
Phillip Lindsay (RB – HOU): 49% Rostered
Among a panel of 61 experts, 18 chose Lindsay as their top RB sleeper. What do they like about someone potentially stuck in a three-back committee on what may be the NFL’s worst team?
This seems like a simple case of trusting the talent. Lindsay exceeded 1,000 rushing yards in each of his first two seasons while recording 35 receptions each year. Although he mustered just 502 rushing yards in 11 games last season, he’s averaging 4.8 yards per carry in his career.
Lindsay played a majority of Denver’s snaps once last season. In that game, he accrued 101 yards on 23 handoffs. His 2021 could look a lot like his 2020, stuck in a supporting role on a putrid offense. However, the 27-year-old is also younger and more capable of transforming into a trustworthy weekly starter than David Johnson or Mark Ingram Jr. If the opportunities don’t arise, you’ll know to move on early.
Elijah Moore (WR – NYJ): 40% Rostered
If A.J. Brown played fantasy football, he would almost certainly draft Moore. After the Jets selected Moore with the 34th pick this year, Brown told his former Ole Miss teammate, “You’re way better than me, bro.” He later tabbed Moore to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Fantasy players haven’t shared the same enthusiasm, likely because of his landing spot. The Jets haven’t produced a 1,000-yard receiver since 2015. Jamison Crowder led them with 699 receiving yards last season. But this isn’t Adam Gase’s offense anymore, so they at least have the potential to yield one or two viable pass-catchers.
The 5’9″ Moore is much smaller than Brown, but he possesses elite speed and agility. Last year, he caught 102 of 121 targets for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns for the Rebels. While the Jets brought in Corey Davis and Keelan Cole Sr., Crowder tested positive for COVID-19 last Friday. If he’s not cleared in time, Moore has an opportunity to build an instant rapport with fellow neophyte Zach Wilson and never look back.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA): 32% Rostered
Let’s not close the book on 2020’s No. 5 pick so soon. Tagovailoa didn’t immediately take the NFL by storm, averaging 181.4 yards per game and 6.3 yards per attempt in a subdued rookie season. He was still recovering from a significant hip injury that prematurely ended his college career and delayed his NFL debut. The Dolphins thus treated their new franchise cornerstone with kid gloves.
He’s now healthy and coming off a full, closer-to-normal offseason. While he ran a simplified offense in limited work last season, he should get more opportunities to throw downfield after the Dolphins acquired Will Fuller and drafted Jaylen Waddle with the sixth overall pick.
Per SB Nation’s Ryan Spagnoli, Tagovailoa even earned rare praise from his Week 1 opponent:
Belichick on Tua: "He played with a whole lot of confidence when we played him in December..he looks good to me." #Patriots
— Ryan Spagnoli (@Ryan_Spags) September 6, 2021
Tagovailoa is going to be fine. Considered a top prospect before getting hurt at Alabama, the 23-year-old entered the league in recovery mode during a global pandemic. His QB17 ECR suggests that the experts like him more than most fantasy managers.
Ty’Son Williams (RB – BAL): 29% Rostered
According to ESPN.com’s Jamison Hensley, Williams is second behind Gus Edwards on Baltimore’s depth chart after losing Dobbins. Justice Hill is also out for the season with a torn Achilles, so any competition would have to come via acquisition. Williams, an undrafted free agent in 2020, has yet to log an NFL touch. He nevertheless received a strong endorsement from Baltimore’s new starter, per Ravens Wire’s Kevin Oestreicher.
“Since we signed him last year, he’s been doing a great job in practice,” Edwards said of Williams. “Everybody gets to see how hard he runs now. He makes a lot of good decisions, and he’s going to do a lot of good things for us this year.”
No team attempted more rushes than the Ravens last season, yet Lamar Jackson led the team in rushes. Edwards (144) and Dobbins (134) split the rushing workload fairly evenly. Since Edwards has also not factored into the receiving game, a bell-cow role is doubtful. That makes the role Williams currently holds valuable real estate. But don’t be surprised if they sign a veteran insurance policy.
Notable Players 36-50% Rostered
Jameis Winston (QB – NO): 43%
It says a lot about the depth at quarterback that Winston remains available in most Yahoo leagues despite getting officially named the Saints’ starting quarterback. When last under center just two seasons ago, he recorded 5,109 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. Not even 30 interceptions deterred him from finishing with the position’s third-most fantasy points behind Jackson and Dak Prescott.
He’s limited as a runner and won’t have Michael Thomas to start the season. The Saints would also happily sacrifice those gaudy yardage totals for more efficiency and fewer turnovers. Nevertheless, Winston has delivered as a top-notch fantasy compiler playing for a coach who helped steer Drew Brees to four 5,000-yard campaigns.
Los Angeles Chargers (D/ST): 38%
Ryan Fitzpatrick should make Washington’s offense a lot more fun, but he’s thrown 169 interceptions and coughed up 51 fumbles in 164 career games. The Chargers, meanwhile, allowed the fourth-lowest completion rate (62.6%) last season. This is a Week 1 only streamer play for managers who didn’t draft a defense, as the Chargers play their next two games against the Cowboys and Chiefs.
Notable Players 10-35% Rostered
Cole Kmet (TE – CHI): 34%
Like many tight ends before him, Kmet had a quiet rookie season. The second-round selection caught 28 of 43 targets for just 243 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Bears teammate Jimmy Graham found the end zone eight times. However, late trends point to a potential sophomore leap. Kmet played at least 70% of Chicago’s offensive snaps from Week 10 onward, including their playoff loss at New Orleans. The Notre Dame alum saw more targets (34) than Graham (23) during those eight games, so it’d only take one big game for him to get plucked off the waiver wire quickly.
Carolina Panthers (D/ST): 31%
It’s never too early to stream defenses. The Panthers, who ranked 18th in total yards allowed and 16th in fantasy points last season, kick off the 2021 campaign by hosting the Jets. While Wilson will inject Gang Green with hope, the rookie is unlikely to repair 2020’s worst offense in his NFL debut.
Terrace Marshall Jr. (WR – CAR): 19%
Few players bolstered their stock more this preseason than Marshall, who firmly solidified his spot as Carolina’s No. 3 wide receiver.
Terrace Marshall among rookie WRs:
🥇 81.4 PFF Grade (1st)
🥇 185 receiving yards (1st)
🥇 100 yards after the catch (1st) pic.twitter.com/z6yd8DyMku— PFF (@PFF) August 31, 2021
As the 10th receiver taken from a stacked 2021 class, Marshall wasn’t receiving as much attention earlier this summer. While there are many mouths to feed in Carolina, the LSU standout could carve out a sizeable niche as Sam Darnold’s slot receiver.
Carlos Hyde (RB – JAC): 17%
James Robinson received the sixth-most handoffs (240) and eighth-highest snap rate (69%) among all running backs last season. Etienne was poised to change that before undergoing season-ending foot surgery, but will the Jaguars now revert to last year’s usage? A new regime probably wouldn’t have signed Hyde before investing a first-round pick on another running back if they wanted Robinson to assume a bell-cow role again.
As noted by Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points, Hyde played 28 snaps — compared to Robinson’s 33 — with Trevor Lawrence under center this preseason. While Robinson is the top option and a solid fantasy starter to commence the season, Hyde could carve out considerable touches and goal-line work.
Randall Cobb (WR – GB): 16%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR – GB): 12%
The Packers once again neglected to attain a legitimate No. 2 wide receiver to line up alongside Davante Adams. They did bring in a familiar face in Cobb, who received 61 targets in nine games with Aaron Rodgers in 2018. Their familiarity could lead to a noticeable role, but the 30-year-old is likely no more than a PPR depth option.
Valdes-Scantling offers far more upside, which he displayed by eclipsing 17 fantasy points (half-PPR) five times last season. That’s not including his 115 yards and touchdown in the NFC Championship Game. Although far too inconsistent to trust, his 20.9 yards per catch will leave managers dreaming of his ceiling. Rodgers and head coach Matt LaFleur have raved about his maturation this preseason, so maybe this is the year he emerges as more than a risky dart throw.
Sam Darnold (QB – CAR): 15%
He’s mustered a mediocre 59.8% completion rate and 6.6 yards per pass attempt through three seasons, but Darnold should benefit from a change of scenery. The 24-year-old escapes the Jets and joins a sneakily stacked Panthers offense featuring a returning Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, former Jets teammate Robby Anderson, and the aforementioned Marshall. Given the nature of quarterback, he can break out and would still be a matchup play in single-QB leagues. If anyone’s already searching for a Week 1 streamer, he’ll begin his new lease on life with an intriguing Revenge Game against the Jets.
Bryan Edwards (WR – LVR): 13%
Nelson Agholor led the Raiders’ wide receivers in targets (82), receiving yards (896), and touchdowns (8) last season. He’s in New England now. They signed John Brown to take his place but cut him when the veteran deep threat requested his release. That creates an opening for Edwards to emerge as a starter, and perhaps Derek Carr’s top playmaker behind Darren Waller.
Although he received just 15 targets as a rookie, Edwards apparently made a strong impression during camp. Per Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Carr compared the second-year pro to Davante Adams and said it’s “very fun to throw him the ball.”
Juwan Johnson (WR/TE – NO): 10%
Adam Trautman drew most of the preseason buzz, but his Week 1 availability remains uncertain after suffering a lower-leg injury during the preseason. Winston’s red-zone success when targeting tight ends was a popular talking point throughout his Tampa Bay tenure, so Johnson is now absorbing the hype instead. The converted wide receiver has the size (6’4″, 230 pounds) and speed (4.58 40 time) to flummox defenses at the new position. Even if Trautman is healthy, he’ll likely have to handle more blocking duties than Johnson. Throw in Thomas starting on the PUP list, and Johnson could headline waiver-wire columns in the next week or two.
Notable Players <10% Rostered
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET): 8%
Quintez Cephus is the only holdover from the Lions’ receiving room last season. Someone will get some targets from Jared Goff, but it won’t be the recently released Breshad Perriman. St. Brown should get a shot. Per The Athletic’s Chris Burke, the 6’0″, 197-pound rookie “was one of the best route runners (if not the best) among all Lions receivers from the day he set foot on the practice field.” With no entrenched starting wide receivers, the fourth-round selection could line up all across the field for a team that will likely throw a bunch from behind.
Tony Jones Jr. (RB – NO): 5%
Jones made the 53-man roster after turning a dozen preseason handoffs into 106 yards and a touchdown. He’ll now compete with Latavius Murray for the significant role of New Orleans’ second running back behind Alvin Kamara. Murray averaged 11.3 touches per game last season. In 2019, he recorded 307 total yards and four touchdowns in two games without Kamara. Jones may seldom see the field as a third-stringer, but he’s worth a deep-league flyer in case the Saints give him reps right out of the gate.
Wayne Gallman Jr. (RB – ATL): 4%
After getting cut by San Francisco, Gallman found a new home with a clearer path to touches in Atlanta. Mike Davis, a career backup on his fifth team, averaged 3.9 yards per carry last season. Meanwhile, Gallman garnered 4.6 yards per run in 2020 while catching 21 of 26 targets. From Week 7 onward, he averaged 69.9 yards per game as the RB14 in half-PPR scoring. Gallman isn’t necessary a league-winner, but it’s easy to envision him once again beginning an unheralded RB2 on an uptempo offense.
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