In the NFL, starting 0-2 puts teams at serious risk of missing the postseason. If they lose again and fall to 0-3, they might as well start making vacation plans for January. Since the league went to its 32-team format in 2002, 86 teams have started 0-3. Just one of those teams -- the 2018 Texans -- made the playoffs, while the 2013 Steelers would have made it if the league had adopted its current 14-team playoff format before 2020. Two out of 86 is 2.4%.
Those numbers aren't quite as damning as the league plays a 17-game regular season for the first time, but the move from 12 playoff teams to 14 didn't help any of the 0-2 teams last season. Eleven teams started 0-2 a year ago, and not a single one of them made it to the postseason. Five of them fired their coach, and the only team among the 11 to even post a winning record was the Dolphins.
Since 2002, 12.5% of teams that have started 0-2 have made it to the postseason or would have under the 14-team format. This season, with seven 0-2 teams sitting at the bottom of the standings, history would suggest that no more than one of those teams is likely to make it to the playoffs. They're also about to face a de facto playoff game in Week 3.
Let's sort through those seven 0-2 teams and try to get a handle on how they can turn around their seasons. I'll stack them from 7 to 1, starting with the team I'm least confident about and working my way up. I'll also include their chances of making it to the postseason from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).
Jump to a team:
Colts | Falcons | Giants
Jaguars | Jets | Lions | Vikings
Chances to make the playoffs: 1.7%
We had a strong idea that the Jets weren't going to be very good in the first few weeks of their debut season under new coach Robert Saleh, and the first two games haven't caused anyone to challenge that opinion. They have been outscored 44-20, and even that required Gang Green to score 10 of their 20 points while trailing in the fourth quarter. Left tackle Mekhi Becton, arguably the team's best player, is on injured reserve with a right knee injury.
Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson isn't going to throw four picks every week, as he did against the Patriots, but there are reasons to think that the defense has been fortunate so far. The Jets have allowed only two touchdowns on seven red zone possessions, in part because the Panthers bungled a snap on fourth-and-1 inside the 10-yard line. They've also been inexplicably spectacular on third down; the same defense that ranks 28th in the NFL in expected points added per play on first and second down is the league's best on third down. Nothing about how they have played on a snap-to-snap basis suggests they're going to be dominant when it matters most over the remainder of the season, which could create some really ugly scorelines in the weeks to come.
Perhaps owing to the Becton injury, Wilson has looked overmatched for most of his first pro starts. Leave aside the snaps he took with a win expectancy below 5% and the No. 2 overall pick in April's draft is 18-of-39 passing (46.2%) for 206 yards with a touchdown and five picks. It's one thing to throw an interception under heavy pressure, as he did on his first pick against the Patriots, but that alone isn't to blame for his rough start. It's difficult to even figure out whom he was targeting on his fourth and final interception, as his throw split two different downfield receivers. We know Wilson has the physical traits and arm strength needed to be an NFL quarterback, but if there was anybody expecting the sort of immediate success Justin Herbert or Robert Griffin had out of Wilson, that doesn't appear to be in the cards.
Obviously, it would have been great if Wilson had turned out to be an instant superstar and the Jets looked like Week 1 contenders in the AFC East, but it doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things if 2021 is a rebuilding season. They aren't that far removed from the top of the division given that every other team is 1-1, but everything seems to suggest that this season will be more about trying to find pieces for 2022 and beyond than competing for a playoff berth.
Chances to make the playoffs: 4.9%
You can tell things aren't going well for a new coach when the team's social media account has to reassure fans after two weeks that things will get better. The statement credited to coach Urban Meyer finishes by saying that there is "not going to be any group working harder to get this thing flipped," which rings true; it's beginning to feel more and more like the Meyer era in Jacksonville will last only a short period of time before it's passed off to somebody else.
After an uneven-at-best offseason, my hope was that Meyer would look better on the sidelines as the Jaguars actually got their season started. His track record in terms of wins and losses at the college level has been impeccable, and he has had successful offenses wherever he's gone. Losing rookie running back Travis Etienne to a foot injury before the season was disappointing, but the Jaguars had enough talent around No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence to seem exciting heading into Week 1.
Through two weeks against the Texans and Broncos, the Jags rank 31st in offensive DVOA. Lawrence looks rattled and inaccurate; 35% of his pass attempts have been off-target, which is more than 10 percentage points beyond any other quarterback in the league. As ESPN's Bill Connelly noted on Twitter, Lawrence was below-average on downfield passes and against man coverage at Clemson, and he has struggled in both situations in the NFL.
1:55
Stephania Bell details Laviska Shenault Jr.'s injury, then Matthew Berry goes into detail as to why Marvin Jones Jr. is the Jaguars' best fantasy wide receiver.
Lawrence has been hit on only 9.9% of his dropbacks, so the Jags have been aggressive about keeping their franchise quarterback safe (and Lawrence is good at keeping himself in one piece), but that's about the only nice thing you can say. They've weirdly run virtually no quick game beyond screens; take them out and look at throws Lawrence has made within two seconds of getting the ball and he's 2-of-7 passing for 19 yards.
Meyer can start by making Lawrence's life easier before third down. Jacksonville ranks 28th in third-down conversion rate so far, in part because its average third down has come with 8.4 yards to go, which is the third-longest average distance in the league. The Jaguars have been forced to call pass plays on 21 of their 22 third-down snaps; the only team more pass-heavy on third down so far is Minnesota.
And while I will admit to being in favor of passing about as frequently as possible, the Jags could help Lawrence by running more. When it has been first-and-10 and teams have had a win expectancy of more than 5%, the league runs about 51.4% of the time. The Jags are running 32.5% of the time. That's great if you're the Chiefs, but Jacksonville is averaging 5.4 yards per pass play and 4.7 yards per run in those situations. Passing is always going to have more upside than running on early downs, and the Jaguars are going to use RPOs in those situations to try to take what the defense offers, but Lawrence can't live in third-and-forever.
The defense has actually been the relative strength of this team, in part because it has created pressure on 40% of opposing dropbacks, one of the league's highest rates. The problem is that it hasn't been able to turn that pressure into defensive production; the Jags haven't forced a takeaway and are allowing a passer rating of 119.9 when they do get after the opposing quarterback, the third-worst mark in football. Take this play from Week 1, where Houston quarterback Tyrod Taylor slips past unblocked edge rusher K'Lavon Chaisson twice before firing a strike to Brandin Cooks for a huge gain:
On this play
- The Texans totally blow a protection and let K'Lavon Chaisson come free
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 16, 2021
- Tyrod Taylor jukes him twice in three seconds
- Tyrod then fires a pass 56.4 yards downfield and hits Brandin Cooks (with 0.7 yards of separation) in stridepic.twitter.com/d4ABwRhnFk
The good news for the Jags is that the division hasn't actually been promising so far; the Colts are 0-2, the Titans needed a massive comeback to get to 1-1, and the 1-1 Texans are down Taylor for the next few weeks. Of course, Houston's one win was a blowout victory over these very Jaguars. I was optimistic that they could benefit from a weak division to flourish, but they seem like the weakest of the bunch through two games.
Chances to make the playoffs: 1.4%
It's not great when two teams from the most-likely-to-improve column each start 0-2. (Thankfully, the Broncos, Eagles and 49ers are a combined 5-1.) Unlike the Jaguars, the Falcons find themselves way behind the rest of their division after two weeks. The Panthers, surprisingly, are 2-0 and about to go up against Houston rookie Davis Mills in his first NFL start. The Buccaneers are 2-0 and look every bit as good as they did during last season's run to the Super Bowl, so any idea that Tom Brady is falling off a cliff seems to be null and void. The Saints are 1-1, but they won one of the most difficult games on their schedule by blowing out the Packers in Week 1.
The Falcons are 0-2, and it hasn't been particularly pretty. The hope was that new coach Arthur Smith would arrive in town and produce a more efficient offense with Matt Ryan after coaxing a new level out of Ryan Tannehill while he was the offensive coordinator in Tennessee. It was easy to envision Ryan going back to the Shanahan/Kubiak scheme he ran during his MVP season and hitting Calvin Ridley off play-action on shot plays.
What has actually happened has been ... a lot more Cordarrelle Patterson than people expected. Ryan is 15-of-20 passing on play-action, but while Tannehill averaged 11.0 yards per attempt with a play fake over the past two seasons, Ryan is averaging just 6.4 yards per play-action attempt. Just six of those 20 pass attempts have produced a first down.
There haven't really been shot plays from this offense, period. Ryan has attempted only two passes traveling 20 or more yards in the air, both of which were incompletions. That's probably because the offensive line hasn't been able to hold up and protect him, with the Falcons collectively ranking 31st in pass block win rate (38.5%) through two games. Rookie third-round pick Jalen Mayfield has been overmatched during his first two starts at left guard, while right tackle Kaleb McGary -- a first-rounder in 2019 -- hasn't ever looked like a viable starting right tackle. McGary is playing because of his draft status and because the team doesn't have any better options.
The other problem for this offense has been abysmal field position. The Falcons' average drive has started with 75.9 yards to go for a touchdown, the fifth-worst mark in football. (The Jags are last, nearly three yards behind the rest of the league.) Ryan & Co. have already started nine drives inside their own 20-yard line so far, and those nine drives have produced a total of just three points. If you don't hit any big plays downfield, don't protect your quarterback and are stuck traveling 80-plus yards for possible touchdowns, you're not going to score many points.
New defensive coordinator Dean Pees has been a master of creating pressure in his other stops, but the Falcons haven't taken to his efforts through two weeks. They rank 30th in pressure rate (21.8%). Opposing teams are 7-for-8 in the red zone through two weeks, with a strip sack of Brady the lone bright spot so far.
Things will likely get a little easier for the Falcons. Facing the pass rushes of the Giants and Jets before their Week 6 bye should give Ryan more time to throw, although I'm terrified of what Washington's Chase Young might do against McGary in between those two matchups. They're not going to allow teams to convert virtually every time in the red zone for touchdowns, and Ryan is going to hit a downfield pass at some point this season. Even if the Falcons do improve, though, they might already be too far behind to catch up in the NFC South.
Chances to make the playoffs: 3.3%
The Lions are feisty! Much like the Texans, who were similarly left for dead in the AFC, the Lions have shown up and been competitive in each of their first two games. Unfortunately for Dan Campbell's team, they didn't get to play the Jaguars. The 49ers game in Week 1 wasn't as close as the 41-33 final score suggested, but Detroit genuinely gave the Packers a hard time in the first half before a failed fourth-and-1 and a Jared Goff fumble swung the game toward Green Bay.
Goff has had crushing giveaways in each of the first two games, including a pick-six at the end of the first half against the 49ers. The 2016 No. 1 pick is completing more than 68% of his passes, but he's averaging only 6.3 yards per attempt and 6.2 air yards per throw. Given that he's throwing so frequently to his backs and underneath to receivers, it's no surprise that his receivers lead the league with 354 yards after the catch; by NFL Next Gen Stats, his receivers have generated 75 YAC more than expected by his throws, the fourth-best mark in the league.
The brightest spot for the Lions' offense might turn out to be an interesting conundrum. Before the season, they chose to move rookie No. 7 overall pick Penei Sewell from his college spot at left tackle to the right side, where he could spend the year protecting Goff's front side and leave the blind side to veteran Taylor Decker. Sewell struggled badly during the preseason, but when Decker suffered a finger injury in practice days before the season began, the Lions placed him on injured reserve and moved Sewell back to left tackle.
1:45
Field Yates and Matthew Berry explain why Lions TE T.J. Hockenson has ascended their tight-end rankings.
Guess what? Sewell has looked like a superstar through two weeks. Ask offensive linemen about switching positions or sides and you'll hear about how difficult it can be. Sewell looked totally out of sorts as a right tackle and looks like a natural on the left side. Decker is in the middle of a four-year, $60 million deal, but I wouldn't be surprised if he came back as the team's right tackle. If Sewell is this good for the remainder of the year, he'll be one of the league's most valuable players as a left tackle making about $6 million per year.
It's harder to be optimistic about the Detroit defense, which is going to be one fantasy players try to target throughout this season. Cornerback Jeff Okudah, the No. 3 overall pick in last year's draft, wasn't playing well in Week 1 before he tore his left Achilles, but the alternatives aren't exciting, either. The Lions allowed Jimmy Garoppolo and Aaron Rodgers to average nearly 11 yards per attempt. They had some success in the first half against Rodgers playing two-deep coverage and heavy doses of zone, but they don't have the pieces in the secondary to play anything else. When they have tried man coverage, Garoppolo and Rodgers have gone a combined 14-of-21 passing for 264 yards with six touchdowns.
With the rest of the NFC North going 2-4 through two weeks, the Lions are in better shape to plausibly compete than the Falcons, even if I don't think they're as good of a team. There aren't many people out there who have realistic expectations that Detroit will actually piece together eight or nine wins and challenge for a playoff berth, but Campbell's team is more competitive than lots of people gave it credit for before the season. I wouldn't be surprised if the Lions pulled off an upset or two of a playoff team as the season goes on.
Chances to make the playoffs: 6.3%
I wrote about the Giants earlier this week in light of their crushing loss to Washington. I'll mostly stand on what I said there, but as with the Jets, it's not particularly important that the Giants make the playoffs this season. Outside of a brutal fumble scrambling against the Broncos, third-year quarterback Daniel Jones has generally looked solid through two weeks. A healthy, effective season from Jones would be far more exciting and important than a 9-8 season and a 7-seed in the NFC.
Jones' chances of thriving will improve if the first-round picks drafted around him do more to help the cause. Running back Saquon Barkley (2018) is clearly not his former self as he recovers from a torn ACL, although his snap rate jumped from 48% in Week 1 to 84% on a short week against Washington. Left tackle Andrew Thomas' struggles have continued, with the 2020 No. 4 overall pick taking two penalties and allowing a sack through two games. Rookie first-rounder Kadarius Toney, meanwhile, has barely seen the field; his 24 snaps have produced two catches for minus-2 yards.
It's tougher to be optimistic about the defense, which ranks 28th in first downs allowed and 24th in success rate through two games while going up against Teddy Bridgewater and Taylor Heinicke. Second-round pick Azeez Ojulari has excited fans with a pair of sacks, but one of the two was of the coverage variety, and the Giants rank 22nd in pass rush win rate. Their numbers look better than they've actually played, owing to two crucial takeaways with Heinicke throwing an awful interception and Denver tight end Albert Okwuegbunam fumbling inside the red zone. Those plays count, of course, but I wouldn't count on the Giants being able to generate a takeaway at exactly the time when they matter most each week.
Chances to make the playoffs: 31.3%
There's a big gap between the first five teams on this list and the final two. The Vikings could plausibly be 2-0. Dalvin Cook fumbled on the edge of field goal range in overtime against the Bengals, and after Joe Burrow completed a fourth-and-1 pass for 32 yards on the ensuing drive, Minnesota lost on a Evan McPherson field goal. Last week, quarterback Kirk Cousins drove the team into field goal range for a comeback win over the Cardinals, only for kicker Greg Joseph to miss a 34-yard attempt. The Vikings have been outscored by four total points. With average luck, they would probably be 1-1. Instead, they're 0-2.
As I've mentioned, there are other teams on this list that can afford to be 0-2. I can't make that case for the Vikings. It's one thing for the Jaguars' defense to be bad, but the typical Minnesota snap on defense has come from a player whose average age is 28.1 years old, making it the oldest defense in the league through two weeks. Coach Mike Zimmer is counting on that unit to make a serious leap after a disappointing 2020 season, and while Danielle Hunter and Michael Pierce have combined for six sacks so far, the D has made too many mistakes.
Minnesota badly blew a coverage on Rondale Moore's 77-yard touchdown last week. Zimmer imported three new starters at corner in Patrick Peterson, Bashaud Breeland and Mackensie Alexander, and they've combined to allow 20 catches on 26 targets for 273 yards and three touchdowns, good for a passer rating allowed of 148.4. Peterson has been the best of the bunch -- and star linebacker Anthony Barr is still out with a knee injury -- but the Vikings don't look comfortable playing together.
The defensive struggles have made it difficult on the offense, which has inherited the league's third-worst average starting field position. Early-down inconsistency on offense also hasn't helped. The Vikings' average third down has come with an even 10 yards needed to convert, the worst mark in all of football. Unsurprisingly, the Vikings have subsequently been the league's second-worst team when it comes to converting third downs. That's not likely to continue as the season goes along, but they can't simultaneously count on being the league's second-best defense on third down, either.
Over the past few seasons, the decisions the Vikings have made in terms of managing their salary cap and re-signing their players have left them as a top-heavy team. Winning with that formula requires their stars to stay healthy and productive and their top draft picks to come through and be contributors. Cook is already dealing with an ankle injury. Justin Jefferson is playing through a separated shoulder. Barr hasn't played. Neither has rookie first-rounder Christian Darrisaw, who has practiced only four times since being drafted in April. Irv Smith Jr. is already likely done for the season with a torn meniscus. The Vikings are banged up and are four weeks away from their bye, with games against the Seahawks, Browns, Lions and Panthers to come beforehand.
The game against the Seahawks on Sunday amounts to a must-win, especially if the Packers pull out a victory in San Francisco. If the Vikings do lose and fall to 0-3, we'll likely start seeing questions about the future of the two most important people in this organization. Zimmer has been at the helm for eight years and won two playoff games, and Cousins is on the books with a $45 million cap hit in the final year of his deal next year. The Vikings have tried to squeeze out another playoff run with this core around Cousins, but it might be time to start over if one isn't in the cards this season.
Chances to make the playoffs: 32.3%
The Colts' chances, meanwhile, might depend on how their players manage to play through or after injuries. Eric Fisher, taking over for the retired Anthony Castonzo at left tackle, returned from a torn Achilles to take over at left tackle in Week 2. Guard Quenton Nelson underwent foot surgery over the summer and is likely playing at less than full health. The same was true of quarterback Carson Wentz even before he suffered injuries to both ankles, an issue that could keep him out of Sunday's game against Tennessee.
Wentz's start with the Colts has been a mixed bag. In reviewing his first two games, you see some of the things that led the 2016 No. 2 overall pick to be so highly regarded during his first couple of years with the Eagles. You also see the guy who doesn't seem to trust his reads and takes unnecessary hits. Take this fourth-and-2 from the Seahawks game in Week 1, when Wentz was sacked by Darrell Taylor:
Welcome to the league, @darrelltaylorst! 💪
📺: #SEAvsIND on FOX pic.twitter.com/RvkUKf1Nhl
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) September 12, 2021
Yes, Wentz gets sacked after his right tackle gets annihilated. It would be better if Braden Smith had not been knocked onto his butt. At the same time, Wentz has 2.9 seconds to throw before Taylor arrives. This is fourth-and-short, so he should be focusing on a quick throw to pick up the first down. He's working to the left side of the field, where Nyheim Hines is open in the flat to move the chains. On third-and-10, he might not want to hit that checkdown, but it's where the ball should go on fourth-and-2. He hits the end of his dropback, and ... the ball doesn't come out. Taylor arrives a beat later.
Wentz has had solid stretches of football during the first two weeks of the season, especially early in the game. Coach Frank Reich was the one who scripted plays for the Eagles during Wentz's MVP-caliber season in 2018, so maybe that shouldn't be a surprise. Across the first 20 snaps of the game over Weeks 1-2, Wentz is 14-of-16 passing for 172 yards with a QBR of 63.5. Afterward, he is 31-of-53 for 326 yards and a QBR of 32.1. As he grows more comfortable in the offense, it's possible that he will get better as the games go along. Of course, for a guy whose mechanics haven't always been set in stone, it's too easy to imagine dual ankle injuries causing him to struggle with his accuracy and throw interceptions.
To some extent, the Colts have been a bit unlucky to start their season. Against the Rams in Week 2, they had an almost comical run of bad luck inside the 10-yard line. One drive got as close to the goal line as possible on Jonathan Taylor runs before Wentz was sacked on fourth-and-goal from the 1-foot line. Later in the half, they made it to the 3-yard line, only for Wentz to somehow throw an interception on a shovel pass. The Colts have gotten inside the 5-yard line three times and scored a total of three points. That's not going to keep happening.
On defense, though, the Colts are simply allowing too many big plays. They are never going to have the best defense in football with their personnel and typical game plan, but they've been able to take away big plays in the past. They were the third-most zone-heavy team in the league over defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus' first three seasons in Indy, and over that time frame, they allowed 7.7 yards per attempt in zone coverage. Through two weeks in 2021, they've allowed 11.5 yards per attempt in zone. Without the corners to play heavy man coverage as much more than a change-up, they have to be able to survive in zone.
The schedule will get easier for the Colts, who started their season with a pair of playoff teams in the Rams and Seahawks. Both of those games were at home, though, and they have a three-game road trip coming up against the Titans, Dolphins and Ravens, each of whom won at least 10 games a year ago. Things get easier after that, but you probably don't need me to tell you that starting 0-5 is fatal to your playoff hopes. It's tough to make the postseason after a 1-4 start, but the last team to do so should be familiar to Reich & Co -- it was the 2018 Colts. If they can salvage a win from this road trip and make it to the easier stretch of their schedule, they might have a shot at salvaging a rough start and playing into January.
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