While official word from the Miami Dolphins may not come until a few hours before kickoff Thursday, it appears as if they will start Jacoby Brissett at quarterback for a second straight game vs. visiting Baltimore because Tua Tagovailoa is questionable due to fractured middle finger on his left hand. Frankly, it may not matter which QB the Fins start because they have never covered a spread against John Harbaugh's Ravens, who are -7.5 at Caesars Sportsbook. Click here for the model's game picks.
Baltimore is 1-5 against the spread as a favorite this season, 0-4 as one of at least four points. However, the Ravens are 9-0 ATS against Miami under John Harbaugh. Those are the most games anyone has coached against a single opponent in the Super Bowl era while covering the spread in every game. Baltimore has won those games by an average score of 31.6-11.0. The Ravens are taking about a 65 percent spread lean at Caesars.
Miami coach Brian Flores said earlier this week that Tagovailoa wouldn't have been healthy enough to start if the Dolphins had to play their game against Baltimore on Tuesday. It's rather doubtful this spread will change regardless. Brissett improved to 1-3 as the starter this year in beating Houston 17-9 on Sunday to snap Miami's seven-game losing streak.
Brissett wasn't that great, completing 26-for-43 for 244 yards with a TD and two picks. The Dolphins had five turnovers overall, their first win with at least five giveaways since 1990 vs Patriots. Top Miami wideouts DeVante Parker and Will Fuller missed that one and won't play here, either.
No quarterback questions for the Ravens and Lamar Jackson. He absolutely thrives on short-rest games (five days or fewer between), going 9-0 straight up and 7-1-1 against the spread career with 25 total touchdowns. Those nine consecutive short-rest wins are tied for the most in the league this century with Tom Brady (2016-19) and Aaron Rodgers (2008-14).
Overall, Jackson is 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS career against teams that enter at least three games below .500. The former Heisman winner is from the Miami area and obliterated the Dolphins in south Florida in a 59-10 rout to open the 2019 season in his last look at the Dolphins. He was 17-for-20 for 324 yards and five TDs for a perfect rating of 158.3.
Jackson is set to get back receiver Sammy Watkins tonight. Watkins injured his hamstring in Week 5 and hasn't played since but still ranks third on the team with 18 catches for 292 yards.
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