Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots (6-4) travel to take on Arthur Smith and the Atlanta Falcons (4-5) in a showdown on Thursday Night Football to get the Week 11 NFL schedule underway. The Patriots completely dominated the Cleveland Browns in Week 10 and won 45-7. The Falcons have been inconsistent thus far in 2021 and are looking to bounce back from a 43-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys last week. This is a rematch of Super Bowl LI, a game best known for Belichick's Pats storming back from a 28-3 deficit for a 34-28 overtime win.
Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists New England as a 6.5-point road favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Falcons odds. The over-under for total points is set at 47, up a point from the opening line. Before you lock in any Falcons vs. Patriots picks or any other Week 11 NFL predictions, you need to see which side red-hot SportsLine NFL expert Emory Hunt is backing.
Hunt is the founder and CEO of Football Gameplan, which has been supplying analysis of all levels of football since 2007, and a former running back at Louisiana-Lafayette. He knows the game from a player's perspective.
In addition, Hunt has been locked in on the tendencies of both of these teams. He is an uncanny 17-4 in his last 21 spread picks involving the Falcons. His success on New England against-the-spread picks is equally impressive, as he is 13-4 on his last 17 picks on the Patriots. Anyone who has followed his advice is way up.
Now, Hunt has broken down Patriots vs. Falcons from every angle and just locked in his expert NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see his TNF picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Falcons vs. Patriots:
- Patriots vs. Falcons spread: New England -6.5
- Patriots vs. Falcons over-under: 47
- Patriots vs. Falcons money line: New England -300, Atlanta +240
- NE: Patriots are 10-7 against the spread in non-conference games since 2018
- ATL: Falcons are 7-4 ATS as home underdogs since 2015
Why the Patriots can cover
New England has a solid rushing attack and is ranked 15th in the NFL with 114.5 rushing yards per game. Damien Harris leads the charge for New England. He is ninth in the NFL in carries (133), tied for 10th in rushing yards (547), and tied for fourth in rushing touchdowns (7). Harris was out against the Cleveland Browns due to a concussion but has been cleared for Thursday.
Rhamondre Stevenson took advantage of his increased playing time against the Browns. He finished with 20 carries for a career-high 100 yards with two touchdowns. The Oklahoma product flashed great decisiveness when making cuts while being a tough runner to bring down. Stevenson is second on the team with 55 carries for 236 yards and three scores, and he'll still be in line for some work even with Harris returning.
Why the Falcons can cover
Atlanta is 9-6 against the spread coming off a loss since the start of last season and has gone 5-1 against the number in non-conference games over that span. The offense led by quarterback Matt Ryan can cause trouble for defenses, especially with Kyle Pitts, who presents major matchup problems. A tight end with the skill of a wideout, Pitts has 417 yards over the past five games, posting 163 yards in one of them. He averages 15.1 yards per catch, with 11 of his 40 grabs going for more than 20.
The defense ranks 16th in the league against the pass (246.2 yards per game) and will make it a point to try to rattle Patriots quarterback Mac Jones. The rookie has seven interceptions and has been sacked 19 times.
How to make Patriots vs. Falcons picks
For Thursday Night Football, Hunt is leaning over on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. He's sharing what it is, and which side of the Falcons vs. Patriots spread to back, only at SportsLine.
So who wins Falcons vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football? And what critical X-factor makes one side a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Patriots spread you should jump on, all from the expert who is 30-8 on picks involving these teams, and find out.
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