IT'S FITTING THAT the Miami Heat's latest all-in reload involved sending out Goran Dragic in their mammoth sign-and-trade for Kyle Lowry -- the first major domino of this NBA free-agency period.
It was Miami's flipping two first-round picks to acquire Dragic at the 2015 trade deadline that set off the first round of fearful snickering among rivals -- clucking that Pat Riley was mortgaging the team's future because that future would belong to his successor. The clucking was always laced with anxiety: Somehow, the Heat -- slick, beachy, with a friendly tax regime -- would climb out of whatever hole Riley dug.
Three years later, it appeared as if the Heat might be buried without a shovel. Chris Bosh's blood clot issues upended the promising 2015-16 Heat featuring Bosh, Dwyane Wade and Dragic. The Heat struck out on Kevin Durant in 2016 and then Gordon Hayward the next offseason, and responded by re-signing their own free agents to huge deals: Hassan Whiteside, Tyler Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, James Johnson, Dion Waiters.
As the calendar flipped to 2018, they all looked like cap-clogging overpays whose contracts would be hard to move. Justise Winslow, the manna-from-heaven pick that represented Miami's salvation, was injured and developing unevenly. Their quiver of first-round picks was half empty.
When I spent a week in Miami that January, those in and around the franchise were as uncertain about their path forward as I had ever seen or heard them. They were determined, hopeful, but unsure. On the Lowe Post podcast last year, Dan Le Batard, who knows Riley well, recalled strolling Heat headquarters around that time with Riley and passing walls adorned with photos of Waiters and Whiteside. "He, like, snorts in disdain," Le Batard said, "and he just blurted, 'Our so-called leaders.' And I'm like, 'Oof. This is not a good place for these people to be.'"
Two years later, they were in the Finals -- one of the greatest short-term turnarounds ever executed from an on-paper position of weakness. The Heat nailed late lottery picks (Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro) that usually yield league-average players at best; turned undrafted guys into starters and key contributors (the newly ultra-wealthy Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, Derrick Jones Jr.); and swapped one second-round hit (Josh Richardson) into the best star that was realistically available to them -- Jimmy Butler, about to sign a mega-extension that will take him into his mid-30s, sources said.
They caught some breaks, as any team does amid a successful retool. The Butler situation with the Philadelphia 76ers went haywire. Teams passed on Adebayo and Herro in favor of worse players. The Heat got off a lot of those bad contracts with minimal pain thanks to injuries and desperation in trading partners, and the Memphis Grizzlies' lust for Winslow -- with the Heat sending out James Johnson and Waiters in that deal, and somehow netting Solomon Hill, Andre Iguodala, and Jae Crowder.
Crowder was the last puzzle piece that made sense of the 2020 Heat: the small-ball power forward with enough size, toughness, and 3-point shooting to unlock Adebayo-at-center lineups that had two-way balance. The Heat in 2020 demurred on one last trade for Danilo Gallinari, wary of committing too much future cap space over too many years -- and wagering Crowder and Iguodala would perform.
The same shielding of cap space cost them Crowder, who signed a long-term deal with the Phoenix Suns after Miami's Finals run. The Heat last season never found a replacement, toggling between imperfect solutions. Makeshift lineups were either too small, with Butler at power forward and multiple below-average perimeter defenders, or lacking in shooting.
ONCE THE HEAT finalized their deal for Lowry on Monday, the biggest remaining question about their roster -- perhaps aside from depth -- was whom Erik Spoelstra would start at power forward. Could they find another Crowder? (The other big question following Lowry's signing -- bigger than the game of point guard roulette going around the league -- was this: What is Philadelphia's backup plan after missing out on Lowry for the second time in four months? Are they just going to stand pat and wait out the Ben Simmons market?)
Candidates flew off the board: JaMychal Green, Jeff Green, Nicolas Batum, others.
And then Miami capped its day with a bombshell: stealing P.J. Tucker -- switchable, mean, still trucking along -- from the postseason starting five of the NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks.
Those Bucks, of course, obliterated the Heat in the first-round of the 2021 playoffs with an emphatic, avenging sweep. That humiliation was catnip to skeptics who dismissed Miami's 2020 Finals appearance as the fluky product of the bubble and the restarted pandemic season from hell.
There is some truth to the notion that Miami was well-suited to the isolated, all-basketball-all-the-time setting of the Orlando, Florida, bubble. But three of the final four teams from Orlando trudged through unremarkable seasons, with the fourth -- the Denver Nuggets -- slumping away once injuries destroyed its guard rotation. (They were exhausted too.) The Heat in 2020 were the only postseason team to take more than one game from the champion Los Angeles Lakers. They would have a hard time reaching the Finals again, but that didn't mean they weren't good or deserving.
But the Heat recognized the status quo wasn't good enough, with Milwaukee having proven itself on the biggest stage and the Brooklyn Nets looming as title favorites entering the 2021-22 season. And so they did their best to rekindle the magic of 2020.
Tucker is a downgrade from Crowder. He is five years older, and starting to show his age. Tucker only launches from the corners, and his mark on those shorter 3s dropped to 34.7% last season -- and 31.4% during a postseason in which he was a total non-threat. The spacing will look cramped at times with Butler, Tucker, and Adebayo on the floor.
Crowder might be the league's streakiest shooter, prone to some ugly backboard bonks, but he is willing to chuck from anywhere and hits at about the same accuracy from the corners and the wings. He's nimbler than Tucker with the ball, quicker as an extra-pass guy.
But Tucker showed in hounding Durant in the second round of the playoffs that he still has much to give on defense when the stakes are high. A well-timed hot streak from the corners could swing a playoff series. No one remembers you shooting 31% on corner 3s for the season if you go 6-of-10 in the right pair of playoff games.
The Heat hope the upgrade from Dragic to Lowry compensates for any drop-off from Crowder to Tucker. Miami was able to pull this sign-and-trade because it coaxed Dragic back last offseason on a two-year, $37 million deal with a team option in Year 2 -- an overpayment in annual salary in exchange for flexibility. The Heat struck the same agreement with Iguodala.
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HOW CAN MIAMI keep doing this? Some of it lies in its inherent advantages -- the lack of a state income tax in Florida, and the attractiveness of living in Miami. But it goes beyond that. Players who thrive there grow to love the franchise. Even having been cast aside, Dragic adores the Heat, sources said. Serious veterans appreciate Riley's commitment to winning.
"We never once spoke about Miami as a city," Butler's agent, Bernie Lee, told me last year in explaining Butler's desire to be there. "Obviously it's an amazing place with amazing people, but Jimmy wasn't going there for the beach. Since he's gotten there, I think we have gone out to eat less than 10 times and one of them was the Super Bowl. We didn't even talk about the tax advantages. The only questions he asked were of the background of the people involved and how they would build out the team."
A healthy Lowry is almost a perfect fit next to Butler and Adebayo. He is a more accurate and prolific 3-point shooter than Dragic, and a much stronger defender. Lineups featuring any two of Dragic, Robinson, and Herro had two spots for predatory opposing offenses to pick at. Lowry vaporizes one of those spots. A closing five of Lowry, Robinson, Butler, Tucker, and Adebayo is formidable. Against some opponents, it will be safe to exchange Herro for Tucker.
There is so much improvisational creativity to Lowry's game -- so much more than rote high pick-and-rolls. He can do plenty of that, of course; the Lowry-Adebayo dance will be an important part of Miami's arsenal, and perhaps a bulwark when Butler rests.
Lowry bobs and weaves in the midrange, cutting randomly, working an impromptu give-and-go, setting unexpected screens, sneaking in for offensive rebounds. Butler and Adebayo live in that space from 20 feet and in. The Lowry/Butler/Adebayo trio overflows with ad-libbing IQ. All three are good to great passers. Adebayo is emerging as a very good midrange shooter. His bully-ball game against switches is coming. Butler is reliable from midrange, in part because of his ability to draw fouls and double-teams.
Cleverness and versatility in tight confines can overcome so-so spacing. Miami's offense is going to sing in the dead zone of the midrange. Robinson's ability to attract two defenders will often give Miami's three stars a head start, some territorial advantage, when the ball reaches them in the midrange. Robinson has grown as a one- and two-dribble pick-and-roll ball handler, and his handoff game with Adebayo is lethal in pulling two defenders toward the arc -- opening easy slip passes.
Lowry is a nasty screener, and he will set ball screens for anyone and everyone: Butler, Robinson, Adebayo -- whatever presents the most danger to the opponent. The diversity of the Heat's offense -- how they seem to run multiple systems within the same possession -- is hard for opponents to adjust to. It's just a little different -- unpredictable, always moving, hard to grasp. Lowry amplifies all of that.
THERE ARE LOTS of questions before putting Miami on the level of Brooklyn and Milwaukee. Lowry is 35, and dropped off a hair last season. Maybe it was the inevitable malaise of playing in Tampa Bay instead of Toronto, and for a team that never recovered from a huge bout with the virus in the middle of the season. Small guards don't tend to age well, but Lowry fits some of the characteristics of one we might expect to buck that trend: smart, stout physically, ace shooter, and someone who didn't pile up as much wear and tear as a reserve early in his career.
Still: Lowry's age places this nucleus on a short, urgent timetable. They have to win immediately. Even minor slippage from Lowry torpedoes that plan.
They are also somewhat shallow. They re-signed Dewayne Dedmon and Gabe Vincent late Monday, and might be too close to the hard cap -- triggered by acquiring Lowry via sign-and-trade -- now to retain Kendrick Nunn.
The Heat had talks with Bobby Portis, sources said, and the Portis-Adebayo frontcourt would have offered an intriguing combination of shooting and size. Portis would have been Miami's new and probably superior version of Meyers Leonard and Olynyk -- center-ish bigs the Heat paired with Adebayo (another center) because Adebayo can defend anyone, allowing Spoelstra to hide weaker tag-team partners.
Portis re-signed with the Bucks instead. Precious Achiuwa, a promising second-year player, is headed to Toronto as part of the Lowry trade. KZ Okpala is perpetually almost ready.
The Heat will find a player or two on the minimum. (They have no other choice at this point.) Herro disappointed in his sophomore season after rollicking through the bubble, but he's just 21. Development is not linear. A leap in Year 3 is possible.
The Bucks just won the title, and the Nets looked as if they were going to roll there before James Harden and Kyrie Irving got injured. Losing Tucker to the Heat hurts Milwaukee, but you probably can't put the Heat higher than No. 3 in the East at this moment -- and both the Atlanta Hawks and Sixers would have something to say about that.
But the Heat are better today than they were 24 hours ago, and they didn't give up all that much to revamp their team. If things go right, they'll have a puncher's chance in the East. What they really surrendered was future cap flexibility in committing big long-term money to Lowry and Butler as they age.
Did you expect anything less from Riley? If you get Butler and reach the Finals, this is what you do. And history suggests that if the hole gets deep, Riley will find a golden shovel.
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