PGA Championship odds, picks: Strokes gained metrics point to Collin Morikawa and Jordan Spieth success, and... - The Athletic

The second major championship of the year brings us to the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island. Just 30 miles from Charleston, S.C., the Ocean Course is a bucket list destination for many amateur golfers around the world. The beautiful windswept landscape first came to prominence when it was built for the 1991 Ryder Cup by Pete and Alice Dye. That Ryder Cup was a memorable one for viewers as the Americans won after Bernhard Langer failed to make a six-foot putt on the 18th hole for the Europeans. It’s hard to believe he ever missed a putt with the way he is still playing on the Champions Tour.

The course has changed some since the Ryder Cup as turf was added to the fairways and around the greens to make it a more desirable destination for amateurs. The Bermuda grass the Americans won on became platinum paspalum before the 2012 PGA Championship because of how well it grows in the seaside environment. The biggest change is the sheer length of the course. It measures out at 7,876 yards from the tips, making it the longest course in major championship history. The course was a monster in 2012. Rory McIlroy won by eight shots, at 13 under par.

If the difficulty of the course wasn’t enough, some of the best players in the world are coming into the week with major question marks. Brooks Koepka continues his recovery from knee surgery and would have been a favorite if he was healthy. Dustin Johnson had to withdraw from the AT&T Byron Nelson citing knee discomfort and hasn’t had a top 10 since the Genesis Invitational in February. Jon Rahm took some time off after his fifth-place finish at the Masters to be with his newborn son, Kepa, but has struggled to find his game since coming back. Bryson DeChambeau is having some troubles with his irons. And Patrick Cantlay can’t make a putt to save his life. He has missed four straight cuts in stroke-play events and needs to right the ship.

Best bets

All odds are from BetMGM; they’re running a special where you can get a one-year subscription (or extension) to The Athletic, plus $100 in bonus bets. If it’s not your thing, we have a bunch of DFS picks (and fades!) below, and it’s all really, at the end of the day, just some generally cool analysis on golf for your viewing pleasure!

Jordan Spieth (14-1 to win) needs the PGA Championship to complete the career grand slam. This might be the best opportunity he has had to close it out. He comes into this week fourth in strokes gained approach over his last 24 rounds. He has gained more than four strokes on approach in every tournament since the Waste Management Phoenix Open — except the Genesis Invitational, where he barely lost ground. I think Pete Dye courses tend to give him some issues around the green, but I’m not too worried about it.

Justin Thomas (14-1 to win) has already won on a Pete Dye course this year as he bagged the Players Championship. He’s hitting it well off the tee and has plenty of distance. He has been lights out with his irons since the WGC Workday at The Concession, gaining 6.8 strokes on average over his last four measured tournaments. His putter has been cold since the Masters, which shouldn’t be a big concern. The greens this week should be to his liking, and he can be aggressive with the slower speeds.

Viktor Hovland (20-1 to win) is coming off of back-to-back third-place finishes. He’s second in the field in strokes gained total over his last 24 rounds. He’s third in strokes gained off the tee and 11th in strokes gained approach over that same span. His putter has been hot lately as he gained eight strokes total on the greens over his last two tournaments. I think he can keep up that same pace on the greens as his two wins have come on the same grass type.

Collin Morikawa (30-1 to win) is No. 1 in strokes gained approach and first in strokes gained tee to green over his last 24 rounds. The defending champion has the game to win at the Ocean Course. I especially like how his cut/fade with his driver will play on some of the harder holes.

Cameron Smith (40-1 to win) hasn’t finished below 17th in his last six tournaments, including a win with Marc Leishman at the Zurich Open. His par-5 scoring shows he can play long holes, and I’m sure the wind isn’t going to affect this Aussie. Even the best ball-strikers are going to miss greens at the Ocean Course, and there is no one better at getting up and down than Smith.

DFS plays

Rory McIlroy at $11,500 (DraftKings) is coming in off of his first win in more than 18 months at the Wells Fargo Championship. Even his playing partner said McIlroy wasn’t firing on all cylinders and yet he still won. We all saw what he can do to a field the last time he teed it up at the Ocean Course. Even with some soft major championship pricing, I am having a hard time being heavy on McIlroy this week. I will most likely be underweight, and it could come back to burn me.

Justin Thomas at $11,300 is a $200 discount from McIlroy and has a very similar upside. In fact, I would take Thomas’ fantasy scoring consistency over McIlroy’s most weeks. I’m hoping the price and Thomas’ pedestrian finishes of late will keep his ownership low, but that may be wishful thinking.

Bryson DeChambeau is priced at $10,200 and is strictly a GPP play for me. He is coming in at a nice price, and his ownership in GPPs will be big. He has been inconsistent with his irons lately and that has cost him. The crooked numbers have put him behind the 8-ball as well. He has the ability to turn it around with his irons, as we saw last year at the PGA and the U.S. Open when he was coming off of a few bad weeks in strokes gained approach. He obviously has the length for the course, but his game is just a little off coming in.

Jordan Spieth ($10,100) will be heavily owned. He will be a major cog in cash game and GPP lineups. For all the reasons I wrote above, I will be on Spieth.

Collin Morikawa ($9,800) is a ball-striking machine. For all the reasons I wrote about above, I will be playing him a ton.

Viktor Hovland is a great price at $9,300. His betting odds to win suggest he should be priced much higher than this. I think we get the benefit of the pricing being out before the finish of the AT&T Byron Nelson with this one.

Cameron Smith is coming in at a decent price at $8,900, but I like a few players below him in GPPs and cash. I like his betting odds a bit better than his pricing this week. Not a fade for me, but definitely not going to be overweight.

Will Zalatoris is at $8,800 on a course that rewards ball-striking and driving distance. Sign me up. I think he may get caught up in the pricing game as Daniel Berger is going to be very popular below him.

Daniel Berger ($8,700) looks healthy again. After he pulled out of the Honda Classic because of injury, I was cautious about rostering him. I got burned last week as he finished third at the Nelson and gained more than four strokes off the tee and another five strokes on approach. I thought he was in for a big year when he won at Pebble Beach, and there would be no better breakout than a win at the PGA Championship.

Tony Finau ($8,600) has three missed cuts and a 10th-place finish at the Masters in his last four stroke-play events. He is struggling after starting the year so well. His price has come down to a spot where it is impossible to ignore a player with his potential. His length off the tee along with the fact his lone win came on the same kind of grass gives me hope this week. I’m not all in and I don’t trust him in cash, but I will be team Finau in GPPs.

Scottie Scheffler ($8,500) has been great off the tee lately. He has gained 11.3 strokes off the tee in his last three measured events. His issue has been his irons as he has lost more than two strokes on approach in two of his last three tournaments. He was popular last week and faded, so we may be able to get him at lower ownership than we thought just a few weeks ago.

Matt Fitzpatrick ($8,400) has struggled with his irons since the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The rest of his game has been covering it up a bit, but he missed the cut last week. I wanted to like Fitzpatrick because of his low ball flight and how well he has been hitting it off the tee, but I am discouraged by his strokes gained approach numbers. I’ll sprinkle him in some lineups, but he won’t be a major player for me.

Abraham Ancer ($7,900) is not the first name that comes to mind when you are thinking of a player for a long course. Think again, as he has been on a tear lately. He finished fifth at the Valspar Championship and second at the Wells Fargo Championship. He has gained 11.9 strokes off the tee in his last three tournaments. He’s fourth in strokes gained tee to green over his last 24 rounds. His numbers are too good to ignore.

Joaquin Niemann ($7,800)is playing well. I have been on him lately, but he hasn’t paid off. He has gained strokes on approach in every tournament he’s played in 2021 except the Genesis. He gained more than five strokes off the tee at the Honda and the Wells Fargo. He’s sneaky long off the tee and is a very good ball-striker. He does have some issues from time to time around the green, but at this price I really like him.

Paul Casey ($7,700) is a bit of a forgotten man at this price. He is coming off a Valspar Championship where he gained more than five strokes on approach but finished 21st because he lost 3.8 strokes on the greens. He’s had an excellent year with only a few hiccups. I really like him at this price.

Corey Conners ($7,600)will infuriate you if you watch him around the greens. If you only watch him off the tee and from the fairway, you will wonder why he isn’t a favorite to win every major. You can’t ignore his ball-striking at this price.

Sam Burns ($7,500) will be owned everywhere. His price was set before his play at the Nelson and probably should have been a bit higher after his win at Valspar. He has gained 12.4 strokes on approach over his last three tournaments and finished first and second in his last two tournaments. His odds are the same to win the tournament as Cameron Smith and is $1,400 cheaper on DraftKings.

Matt Wallace ($7,400) is ninth in strokes gained approach and 10th in strokes gained tee to green over his last 24 rounds. He has been playing really well and knocking on the door of a win.

Keegan Bradley ($7,300) is not the same player off the tee he was in 2012, but he has improved his game in other ways. He has become a much better ball-striker and has been very good around the greens this year. He is 16th in the field in strokes gained on approach and third in strokes gained around the green over his last 24 rounds. He hasn’t missed a cut since the American Express in January and had a second-place finish at the Valspar.

Charley Hoffman ($7,300) has been a machine this year. He is fifth in strokes gained approach and eighth in strokes gained tee to green. He also sits inside the top 50 in strokes gained around the green and putting. His game has been tremendous, yet he hasn’t found the winner’s circle. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Waste Management Phoenix Open and is fourth in DraftKings scoring over his last 24 rounds.

Jason Kokrak ($7,100) is very good off the tee and has been excellent with his putter. He has gained more than three strokes off the tee in every measured tournament since the WGC Workday at The Concession. He’s definitely in play for me.

Matt Jones ($7,100) followed up his win at the Honda Classic with solid performances at the Masters and the Wells Fargo. His low penetrating ball flight mixed with his excellent skills around the green should help him continue his fine form.

Ryan Palmer ($6,900) was a bit overpriced last week but falls back to the perfect zone to get the best value from playing him. He is long off the tee and has had a solid season even if he has faded on the weekends lately.

Stewart Cink ($6,900) will not be ignored. This course may be a little long for him, but I wouldn’t put anything past him at this point. He was great at the Masters and followed that up with a dominating win at the RBC Heritage on a seaside Pete Dye design. He struggled a bit off the tee at the Wells Fargo, but so did a lot of people. His 4.5 strokes gained on approach are enough to soothe my concerns.

Charl Schwartzel ($6,800) is on fire with his irons. He has gained 17.6 strokes total in his last three measured tournaments. You add in a runner-up at the Zurich (with Louis Oosthuizen) and a solid finish at the Masters and you have a player who is having a bit of a renaissance. He has gained a total of 5.6 strokes off the tee over his last three tournaments as well.

Thomas Pieters ($6,800) provides a lot of bang for your buck at this price. He is long off the tee and has gained strokes on approach in all three of his stroke-play starts on the PGA Tour this year. His missed cut at the Nelson was due to his putter so I’m not too worried.

Sam Horsfield ($6,700) leads the European Tour in strokes gained approach. His lone start this year on the PGA Tour was a missed cut at the Valspar, but I’m not too concerned with that. I think he’s a good gamble in GPPs at this price with the casual DraftKings players not knowing too much about him.

Harold Varner III ($6,600) is probably the lowest-priced player I will look to in GPPs. He packs a lot of volatility when you roster him, so you have to be careful. He finished second at the RBC Heritage on a Pete Dye design and has traditionally been a solid ball striker.

Betting insights

BetMGM shared the betting favorites for Day 1 leader, and it’s an interesting mix. Sergio Garcia (66-to-1) is the most bet-on-golfer to lead after the first day, while Cameron Smith has the most money bet on him:

Highest Ticket%

Sergio Garcia (+6600) 4.5%
Jordan Spieth (+2500) 2.8%
Keegan Bradley (+6600) 2.8%

Highest Handle%

Cameron Smith (+5000) 6.3%
Keegan Bradley (+6600) 5.9%
Sergio Garcia (+6600) 4.9%

Most bet props

Jordan Spieth finish Top 5 (+300)
Will Zalatoris finish Top 20 (+180)
Viktor Hovland finish Top 10 (+200)
Will there be a hole-in-one in Round 1: Yes +400
McIlroy/Thomas/Spieth vs. the Field: +333

I’ll be back Wednesday with my long shots and one-and-done picks.

My stats come from my go-to site for golf statistics and lineup building: FantasyNational.com. I look forward to bringing you the very best in fantasy golf coverage and betting at The Athletic. I look forward to interacting with all of you and maybe building some winning lineups and betting cards together. Please leave your questions below or hit me up on Twitter @CoachEsser.