Saturday NFL football has arrived, and betting analysts Doug Kezirian (14-23-2, 1-0 last week), Tyler Fulghum (23-24, 8-1), Joe Fortenbaugh (38-35-1, 2-3), Anita Marks (227-199, 25-15) and Erin Dolan, fantasy and sports betting analyst Eric Moody (112-105, 12-12), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (57-47, 6-3) and Mackenzie Kraemer (6-14, 1-1), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (27-24-1, 1-2) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (47-37, 3-2) are here provide their top plays. (Records through Week 14.)
Here are their best bets for Saturday's Week 15 game between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Saturday's best bets
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 45.5), 8:15 p.m. ET
Fortenbaugh: Bill Belichick as an underdog coming off his bye week? Sign me up. Since 2003, the New England head coach is a lucrative 27-14-2 against the spread (65.8%) as a road underdog, not to mention 6-1 ATS over his past seven contests when coming off a bye. The Colts are 6-3 over their past nine outings, but I can't shake the memories of how often this team has come up short in big games this season, falling to the Rams, Titans (twice), Ravens and Buccaneers. Belichick's defense vs. Carson Wentz will be the difference.
Picks: Patriots +2.5, Patriots +8.5 in a 6-point teaser with Philadelphia -1, Wentz throws INT (-110)
Schatz: You might be scared off by a Mac Jones passing prop after he threw just three passes against Buffalo, but obviously several factors combined to make that ridiculous game script possible, starting with the elements and continuing with Buffalo's strong pass defense. The Colts are a very different story. Indianapolis ranks fifth in run defense by Football Outsiders DVOA but 17th against the pass. They cut opposing run plays by an average of 10% per game, and the Patriots will have the advantage in this game by passing the ball. Getting to play indoors is just a little added boost, as road quarterbacks gain in passing yards by 4% in domes. We estimate a 65% chance of Jones beating this passing prop.
Pick: Jones over 226.5 passing yards (-110)
Moody: Prior to throwing for only 19 yards against the Bills in Week 13, Mac Jones averaged 230 passing yards per game (including two games with over 300 yards). Despite allowing the 12th-lowest passing yards per game (203.2) this season, the Colts defense has a lot of weaknesses in its secondary that New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels can exploit should Indianapolis prioritize taking away the running game. Zone coverage is the primary defense style of the Colts. The good news for Jones is that McDaniels is an exceptional playcaller when it comes to breaking down zones.
The Patriots should take advantage of Hunter Henry's speed and route-running ability over the Colts' linebackers. Over the past five games, tight ends Pharaoh Brown, Rob Gronkowski, Dawson Knox, Dan Arnold and Ryan Griffin have averaged eight targets, 5.2 receptions and 64.2 receiving yards against them.
During Weeks 1-12, Jakobi Meyers, the Patriots' targets and receptions leader on the season, averaged 7.5 targets and 51.7 yards per game. It's likely the Patriots will continue to rely on him against the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium.
According to DVOA, the Patriots have the No. 2 pass defense in the league. But Carson Wentz has played well against the top pass defenses this season. In a game in which the Colts could dramatically improve their playoff chances, I expect Wentz to bring his best effort.
Michael Pittman Jr. is averaging 8.2 targets and 62.3 receiving yards per game over the past six games. He has become the team's alpha wide receiver, and he will be instrumental against the Patriots' defense.
Picks: Jones over 226.5 passing yards (-115), Henry over 25.5 receiving yards (-120), Wentz over 225.5 passing yards (-115), Pittman over 58.5 receiving yards (-115), Meyers over 44.5 receiving yards (+110)
Walder: The Patriots have allowed 4.4 yards per carry this season, a shade worse than average. But ESPN's run stop win rate -- which uses player tracking data to evaluate defenders in the box on run plays -- suggests that New England is a top-three run-stopping team. I'm willing to wager there's a signal there relative to the market and therefore will fade Jonathan Taylor, as good as he's been this year.
In addition, Meyers' receiving line stands out relative to his pass-catching opportunities this season. His expected receiving yards per game -- based on air yards, expected completion probability and expected YAC -- has been 57. So to get plus money on 45.5 looks like nice value.
Picks: Taylor under 93.5 rushing yards (-115), Meyers over 44.5 receiving yards (+110)
Fulghum: This should be a slow-paced, physical, playoff-caliber football game between two teams that match strengths. Both the Pats and the Colts want to dominate the line of scrimmage with a powerful offensive line and a strong running game and are primed to do so coming off a bye. Due to their preferred style of play, both teams operate as play volume-suppressing matchups. Patriots games average the fourth-fewest combined plays per game, while Colts games average the seventh-fewest combined plays per game.
Pick: Under 45.5
Marks: The Pats defense is allowing a league-low three scoring plays per game, is the second-best red zone defense (45% conversion rate) and has allowed only four total touchdowns to opponent backfields. The Colts' defense is below 20% in both pressure and blitz rate, so I expect Jones to have a ton of time to carve up the Colts secondary in the passing game.
Pick: Jones over 1.5 TD passes (+130), Jones no INT (-110), Jones over 20.5 completions (-125), Jones over 226.5 passing yards (-115), Kendrick Bourne over 41.5 rec yards (+105), Wentz over 9.5 rushing yards (-125)
Dolan: The line keeps moving in favor of the Colts, despite the Patriots being 7-0 straight up and against the spread in their past seven games. Belichick is 9-0 ATS vs. the Colts and will focus on limiting Taylor and the run game.
If New England can limit Taylor, Wentz will be forced to throw against a Patriots defense that ranks third against the pass. Wentz ranks 25th in the league with a 63.3% completion rate, and the Patriots' defense will feed off that. I expect Wentz to throw at least one interception.
The Colts have shown they can't play up to competition, with losses to the Rams, Ravens, Buccaneers and two loses to the Titans. Their best win of the season was over the Bills when Taylor had four touchdowns.
Bottom line: The Patriots' defense is better, ranking No. 1 in the league in points allowed per game. New England will limit a Colts offense that ranks third in points scored and second in rushing yards per game. Word of advice: Don't bet against Belichick.
Pick: Patriots +2.5
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