They have identical records and one team owns a victory over the other, yet Michigan found itself ahead of rival Michigan State in the latest round of the College Football Playoff rankings.
Unveiled Tuesday night, the Wolverines moved up one spot, to No. 6, while MSU dropped four spots to No. 7 after a deflating loss to Purdue over the weekend, stirring confusion and controversy in the super-charged rivalry.
“The Michigan-Michigan State discussion really started last week,” CFP selection committee chair Gary Barta told reporters Tuesday night. “I would just summarize that the committee went back and forth and, really, the consensus was that Michigan was probably a more complete team.”
The comments were a bit extraordinary given what transpired on Oct. 30 in East Lansing, a game between the two schools won by Michigan State, 37-33, albeit not without controversy, that earned the Spartans a No. 3 ranking.
But, Barta said, the 13-person committee was impressed by Michigan’s statistical rankings on both sides of the ball.
“They’re ranked higher than Michigan State in just about every category,” he said. “That being said, the committee gave great credence to a Michigan State win head-to-head against Michigan.”
More: Michigan moves ahead of MSU in new College Football Playoff rankings
However, that favorable impression appeared to only last five days. By the end of the night Saturday, Michigan State had followed up the win over Michigan with a let-down loss to the playoff-crashing Boilermakers, who entered the rankings this week at No. 19, and the Wolverines had redeemed themselves with a 29-7 win over Indiana. Both teams now own identical 8-1 records, identical 5-1 conference records and have mutual victories over Big Ten foes Northwestern, Nebraska, Rutgers and Indiana.
The only traits separating the two teams is the head-to-head matchup and stats.
“This week, the same discussion goes on,” Barta continued. “What’s changed? Michigan won and Michigan State lost. And so, for this week, we slotted Michigan State at 7. As we come back next week, each of those teams will have played again and we’ll have another data point to look at.”
Barta was asked if there were any committee members who felt Michigan should have been ranked ahead of Michigan State after the two teams played on Oct. 30, only to respond, “I’m not willing to go there.”
“What I was saying is — there was and continues to be discussion that Michigan, in the opinion of the committee, is a more complete team,” Barta said. “That’s the dialogue that continued this week. But I don’t remember every part of the discussion last week, other than to say that Michigan State got the respect and the nod for the win head-to-head over Michigan.”
Michigan State head coach Mel Tucker paces on the sideline during the second half on Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021 in East Lansing. Michigan State defeated Michigan 37-33. (Jake May | MLive.com)Jake May
Complicating matters for Barta and the CFP committee is their reasoning for ranking Oregon No. 3, ahead of Ohio State at No. 4, because of a head-to-head victory over the Buckeyes. That has been a sticking point now for the last two weeks. Yet the committee elected to rank Michigan ahead of MSU, despite an on-field loss to the Spartans.
Barta said the committee takes into account a number of factors when weighing resumes and where to rank teams, like win-loss record, strength of schedule, overall body of work and statistical data. But there’s also the subjectivity that goes into it from the committee members who watch the games, he says. And through nine weeks, enough of them (Barta doesn’t disclose vote counts) felt Michigan was the better team despite a head-to-head meeting that went the other way.
“It’s considered in all ranking discussions,” Barta said. “It’s not the sole data point that we use. For example, if someone has one loss — we don’t automatically say that the undefeated team is ahead of the one-loss (team). Same with head-to-head.
“It’s considered. It’s looked at. But it’s not the only piece of information that we make the final decision upon.”
Regardless of where you fall on the debate, here’s the reality: Michigan State controls its own destiny. By winning their remaining games, the Spartans can overtake No. 4 Ohio State and No. 6 Michigan and springboard into the Big Ten title game. A win there and MSU’s likely in the playoff.
The path is a bit more difficult for Michigan, which not only must win its remaining games — over Penn State, Maryland Ohio State — but get a Michigan State loss as well. All scenarios are possible, which makes this weekend’s slate of games even more appealing. Michigan travels to Penn State on Saturday (noon, ABC), while Michigan State hosts Maryland (4 p.m., FOX).
Let’s see who, if anyone, flinches first.
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