We're halfway through the NFL season, give or take, and it's kind of amazing we still don't know, well, anything. Just when we're starting to think we know some things, along come the Jaguars to beat the Bills in a game with a total of 15 points scored.
Every single AFC team has laid some kind of egg at some point this season, whether it's the Ravens losing to the Dolphins or the Titans and Bengals losing to the Jets or the Bills in Jacksonville. The Chiefs are broken. The Browns are dumping high-profile players. The Raiders lost to the Giants. The NFC is stronger up top but not much cleaner.
There's no one with a clean resume who feels trustworthy. This week makes things even more confusing -- there are tons of huge point spreads and those teams laying a lot of points felt safe a week ago, but now suddenly we don't know who to trust.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook
NFL Week 10 Picks
Bills at Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
This isn't a "must win" game for the Bills but it's definitely a "better get right" game for Josh Allen and this offense. They scored six points against the Jaguars. Six points. Against the Jaguars. Even a few days removed it doesn't feel real. The Bills' offensive struggles the last few weeks are extremely concerning, but they started to figure it out in the second half against the Jags a bit by focusing on feeding Stefon Diggs. Cole Beasley is great, but he shouldn't be the focal point of this offense; 33.9 percent of Diggs' routes are longer-developing ('go,' 'post,' and 'corner' specifically) after just running those 27.5 percent of the time last year. Let him work at different levels! Defensively the Bills are still doing a lot of good things -- per CBS Sports Research, they've allowed just five passing touchdowns, have 11 interceptions, have given up 1,416 passing yards and just 5.6 yards per pass attempt. Basically the Bills have turned their opponents' quarterbacks into some combo of Jacoby Brissett, Davis Mills and Sam Darnold. NFL Legend Mike White gets the start but the fairy tale might come to an end. Buffalo isn't scared to flex on division opponents and they just got embarrassed real bad. The Jets have given up 43.3 points, 25 (!) plays of 20+ yards and allowed 81.3 percent of red zone trips for touchdowns over the last three weeks.
The pick: Bills 35, Jets 7
Props, Best Bets: Bills -12.5
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Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
No Nick Chubb in this game, a real shame after he picked up AFC OPOW for his dominating 9.8 yards per carry performance against the Bengals. Bill Belichick probably won't mind, especially since he's trying to keep alive a streak of beating Cleveland in Foxborough. The last win by the Browns in New England came in 1992 ... and Belichick was the coach. Chubb, Demetric Felton and John Kelly all tested positive for COVID-19 this week, which means D'Ernest Johnson is likely the only active running back on the roster. Baker Mayfield is averaging over 10 yards per attempt in the three games without Odell Beckham, Jr., and 7.5 in Weeks 3-8 when Beckham was active. But it's fair to wonder if Baker can keep it rolling in New England. I'm buying the Pats as a playoff team and legit contender in a big way. My biggest concern here is the Browns' ability to slow down the run and Damien Harris/Rhamondre Stevenson being in the concussion protocol. I'm not sure Brandon Bolden is a bell cow. The line has moved in the opposite direction, but I'm backing the Pats and Belichick's resurgent defense.
The Pick: Patriots 24, Browns 21
Bets: Nope
Jaguars at Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
The Colts have the third-lowest strength of victory (.235) in the NFL this year, ahead of only the Lions (.000) and 49ers (.231), beating the Dolphins, Texans, 49ers and Jets on the season. Fortunately for them they're playing the Jaguars this week. The Jags defense has actually been good against the run, ranking eighth in rush defense DVOA on the season, which might pose a problem for Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines. The Jags are also one of the best rushing teams in the NFL, so I don't see this being a shootout despite the hefty 47.5 point total. Both secondaries are suspect, so maybe it turns into a chuck-fest between Carson Wentz and Trevor Lawrence. Michael Pittman profiles as a great DFS and prop position this week and there might be a skinny stack here with Dan Arnold. I don't feel good about backing the Jags here but I think they keep it within one score.
The Pick: Colts 28, Jaguars 21
Bets: Michael Pittman overs
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Prime explosion spot for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense after being essentially blanked by Denver last week. The Falcons are unquestionably a bottom five defense and even though the Atlanta offense has been playing well recently, we have the added bonus of a Dan Quinn Revenge Game upcoming. Micah Parsons might go bananas and if you haven't bet him to win DROY yet, now is a good time before he gets past -150. There isn't anyone close right now. Cordarrelle Patterson has more scrimmage yards than Dalvin Cook, more receptions than DeAndre Hopkins, more touchdowns than Travis Kelce and more yards per catch than Tyreek Hill. He's one of the best stories of the year in the NFL. But the Falcons are likely trailing most of this game and that will make life tough for Matt Ryan on a ton of drop backs. Everyone knows I love Revenge Narratives, so give me all the CeeDee Lamb props after the Falcons passed on him. Tyron Smith is absolutely a factor here -- the Cowboys are just objectively much worse without him. If he doesn't play I might flip my pick.
The Pick: Cowboys 35, Falcons 23
Bets: CeeDee Lamb overs
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
The Titans are on an absolute heater right now after beating the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Rams consecutively. Next up? Trevor Siemian! Tennessee's actual concern is the Saints defense, checking in as a top-three unit and No. 1 against the run. In theory the Titans will throw more with no Derrick Henry but they're clearly committed to keeping the same offense despite the Big Dog going down. Tennessee's defense was incredible against the Rams on Sunday night, but Sean Payton plus the Saints offensive line should neutralize the rush to a degree. I'd be extremely interested to know what the line would do if Alvin Kamara is ruled out, except for the fact I really don't want Alvin Kamara ruled out. This feels like a grinder game.
The Pick: Saints 21, Titans 17
Bets: Saints +3
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Every year for the last few years we wonder how the Steelers keep managing to pull out a bag of magic beans and win games they probably shouldn't. Maybe we should just give Mike Tomlin more credit. The Lions profile as a frisky cover machine piling up garbage time points, but they don't score points. Detroit hasn't scored more than 20 points since Week 1. The Steelers letting the Bears back in Monday night's game definitely gives pause, but the Lions simply aren't good, at all. They're going against a scary Steelers DL and Detroit is 25th in DVOA against the run. Najee Harris might go huge here. I will very begrudgingly take the Lions catching nine points but I don't feel good about it and the game won't feel close.
The Pick: Steelers 21, Lions 14
Bets: Steelers 1H
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Sure feels like every single spread is north of nine the last month or so in the NFL and this game qualifies. It's an actual rematch of the playoff game, thanks to Taylor Heinicke starting against Tom Brady. The big difference is the Washington defense is terrible now. Ron Rivera's crew is 31st against the pass and the only reprieve they get is Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin being banged up. Skinny stacks in DFS with Mike Evans and Terry McLaurin are extremely interesting given how these two teams let opponents throw the ball. I'm probably looking over here versus a side and Evans/Tyler Johnson props are intriguing. We could see a lot more Leonard Fournette usage plus the tight ends if AB/Godwin are out.
The Pick: Bucs 31, WFT 24
Bets: Need to see injury report
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
The Broncos just played a great defensive game post Von Miller but I'm not sure this is an actual good defense. It's a classic letdown spot coming off the "everyone might be fired after Von got traded" game. Philly has skewed run heavy the last few weeks and the Broncos aren't slowing down the run. Hope you like Jordan Howard touchdowns!
The Pick: Eagles 21, Broncos 17
Bets: Nah
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
The Panthers are a hot mess. Such a mess they're apparently bringing back Cam Newton?!?! Imagine cutting Cam, signing Teddy Bridgewater to a huge deal, trading Teddy, trading FOR Sam Darnold ... only to bring back Cam. And no matter what happens, they have a worse quarterback situation than the Cardinals, even if Kyler Murray is out. David Tepper is really something else. Desperation is a stinky cologne and the Panthers are soaked in it. The defense will keep them in this one for the first half but it's hard to imagine them having a chance to win this game, even with a bunch of Cardinals reserves playing. I think they cover, barely, but mostly because it's a let-down spot after a big rivalry game for Arizona.
The Pick: Cardinals 23, Panthers 13
Bets: No ty
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
If this game doesn't go over the total I am going to be a very sad panda. I've earmarked this bad boy for DFS already and already bet on the over as well. You can run on the Chargers so it's a little worrisome that Mike Zimmer could lean on Dalvin Cook (and Cook is apparently playing despite a highly concerning civil lawsuit filed against him in recent days) and Alexander Mattison in the run game here. Minnesota's defense is just depleted, though, and I think it means the Chargers finding some big plays in the pass game. If you can score early on the Vikings, you can easily coax them into slinging the ball around and all of a sudden Kirk Cousins is lobbing bombs to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.
The Pick: Chargers 35, Vikings 31
Bets: Over 53
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
After the football gods conspired to steal Patrick Mahomes vs. Aaron Rodgers from us, they decided to giveth in this game, sending both Russell Wilson (hand) and (hopefully) Aaron Rodgers (COVID) back for this game. Some people thought this would be the OBJ bowl if he ended up waiting until next week to decide on a landing spot. Instead, it's a bit of a desperation spot for the Seahawks, who need to find a way to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Packers will probably have an angry Rodgers looking to let everyone know just how important he is to the team, as if that wasn't obvious with Jordan Love on the field. Against Seattle's defense, No. 12 shouldn't have much of a problem showing that.
The Pick: Packers 28, Seahawks 24
Bets: A.J. Dillon over rush yards
Chiefs at Raiders
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
We all just keep expecting the Chiefs to break out of their funk and it simply just keeps not happening. Will the final drive and throw against the Packers serve as a catalyst for Patrick Mahomes to suddenly start playing good football again? The problem is the Raiders are currently playing good football. And I'm not sure they should be underdogs at home to a team playing as questionably as the Chiefs have been the last few weeks. Despite a pretty bad record against K.C. in his career, Derek Carr has actually shown up really well against the Chiefs over the last few years. He knows how big this game is for both teams. I can't see him coming out flat here.
The Pick: Raiders 24, Chiefs 21
Bets: Under
Rams at 49ers
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
The debut of Von Miller and Odell Beckham on the road for the Rams! The entire world is going to be on Los Angeles here against a wounded division opponent, particularly with everyone wanting to fade the 49ers right now. The Rams are loading up on superstars via trades and free agency and starting to become the popular team du jour. The 49ers are the opposite of that -- their offense looks lethargic, people are wondering if the the Niners need to jump to Trey Lance, and Kyle Shanahan is coming under serious heat. It all sets up for a perfect buy low opportunity for San Francisco.
The Pick: 49ers 24, Rams 21
Bets: Pass
Ravens at Dolphins
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
The Dolphins completely flipped the script on the Ravens with their Florida narrative on Thursday night. I was dead wrong on this game.
The pick: Ravens 35, Dolphins 17
Props, Best Bets: Nope
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