NFL picks against the spread: Predicting divisional round - The Athletic

This post will be updated if there is significant COVID-19-related news before kickoff.

Last week: 1-5Season: 147-112-3

Rams at Packers (-6.5)

It will be strength on strength at Lambeau Field. The Rams’ defense finished the season first in weighted DVOA, which means no one was playing better than them at the end of the season. And Los Angeles was flat-out dominant in its wild-card win over the Seahawks. The Packers’ offense, meanwhile, ranked first in DVOA during the regular season.

As outlined earlier this week, the Rams do a great job of not tipping their hand before the snap. Last week, they “fooled” Russell Wilson into a pick-six. The back-and-forth between Aaron Rodgers and the defense before the snap is going to be fun to watch. If there’s a weakness for the Rams, it’s going against play-action. According to TruMedia and Pro Football Focus, they ranked 14th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play against...

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