There’s an important part of life on the NCAA tournament bubble that people often forget:
It’s not just about what your team does but what the other teams on the bubble do, too.
So Duke’s overtime loss to Louisville on Saturday, while not ideal, does not doom the Blue Devils. That’s because while Duke was losing, so were Minnesota, Seton Hall, Stanford, Ole Miss, Boise State and Indiana.
All of the sudden, you don’t feel so bad about the loss, do you Duke?
And you shouldn’t. You can be forgiven for giving in to the whims of the bubble, since you are new here.
On the flip side, while all of those bubble teams were losing, UNC picked up a gigantic win over Florida State. The comeback home win over the ACC leaders gives UNC another “Quadrant 1” win and another win over a team likely to be in the 68-team field.
I updated the Bubble Comparison spreadsheet (Click on the link in the tweet) with the weekend results. I added a few new numbers to the “At-large” tab, which might turn out to be useful for the selection committee.
A couple of notable items for Duke, Carolina and NC State:
Duke: First Four or bust?
The first 30 teams I have listed on the “At-large” tab should feel good about their spot in the field. There are 37 at-large spots this year (with the Ivy League on hiatus).
Those final 10 spots could really go in any number of directions.
The Blue Devils (11-9) are only 1-3 in Q1 games but 6-6 in combined Q1/Q2 games. They have three wins over teams likely to make the field (Virginia, Clemson and Georgia Tech). That compares favorably to the other teams at the end of the bubble.
The Blue Devils get two Q1 games this week with trips to GT and UNC. They need to win at least one of those games.
Now let’s look at the history of the “First Four.” When the field expanded in 2011 to 68 teams, the last four at-large teams on the board were sent to Dayton, Ohio for a play-in round.
The selection committee loves to mix and match “major” with “mid-major” programs in the First Four. Of the 36 teams picked to start in the First Four, 19 have come from a major conference and 17 from outside the power structure (note: I counted BYU in the “mid-major” category).
On paper, Belmont wasn’t an NCAA tournament team in 2019 but it made the first four (and won one game).
You can’t convince the committee doesn’t save one spot (or more) in the First Four for a team from outside the power structure. That’s why I have Drake (from the Missouri Valley), in the field.
The flip side of that, the NCAA has an $8.8 billion contract with CBS and Turner Sports. For all intents and purposes, the tournament is a television show.
Every year, someone from the NCAA or the selection committee will say they’re not influenced by what works for TV and every year I don’t believe them.
That’s not a nefarious accusation, it’s just a reality. I point this out as a long way of saying, if Duke is close, it will get in. This year, more than ever with limited fans, the tournament is a television show. The Duke brand (whether you love them or hate them) goes a long way with viewers.
Now factor that the NCAA changed the setup for the tournament and the first Thursday of games will be the First Four (instead of its usual Tuesday start) and you tell me if the choices are Duke, Michigan State, Boise State, Utah State and Connecticut, which two teams will get in?
That doesn’t mean Duke can just lose out and expect to get in. A split with Georgia Tech and UNC this week and then two wins in Greensboro (assuming one is a quality win) should put Duke in the field.
UNC: Don't do anything stupid
UNC fans are also new to bubble talk but remember: you’re not being compared to previous UNC teams or the teams at the top of the at-large board. You’re being compared to other teams at the end of the bubble.
And right now, after the big FSU win, UNC looks Scarlett Johannson.
UNC (15-8) doesn’t play many “must win” games in the regular season but Saturday was one of them. (And Roy Williams, just in case you were confused, didn’t win 900 games by accident.)
The Heels have a 2-6 Q1 record, 7-7 combined Q1/Q2 record and three wins over teams likely to be in the field. That’s better than say Saint Louis, Colorado State, UConn or Duke.
Now the Heels enter the potentially tricky portion of the bubble known as “just don’t do anything stupid.”
Losing to Syracuse on Monday night would qualify, a home loss to Duke on Saturday wouldn’t. If no other reason, UNC needs to win on Monday to avoid the up-and-down nature of the past month.
UNC needs to split its regular-season games this week and then win its first game in Greensboro. That’s not asking a lot.
NC State: Stay in 'cockroach mode'
Few people like cockroaches but you should respect them. They refuse to go away, can survive disaster and never make anything easy.
NC State (12-9) has been in full-on cockroach mode since playing poorly in January, in general, and since losing at home to Duke, specifically, on Feb. 13.
Since the Duke loss, State has won four straight. In the past 40 years, NC State has won four straight ACC games only nine times. This is the second time in four years that Kevin Keatts has pulled off that particular feat.
That’s the good news. The bad news is only one of those wins (at Virginia) is actually useful for the Wolfpack’s NCAA tournament chances. But the winning streak has brought the Wolfpack to the edge of the bubble, a very familiar place for them.
Like Rick Astley sang, “you know the rules and so do I.” State needs to keep winning. The home finale against Virginia Tech on Saturday is of particular value.
State has two wins over teams likely in the field (UVa and UNC). The COVID breaks hurt the team on the court in January and are now hurting their bubble life. Games against Louisville and Georgia Tech (both likely tourney teams) were scotched by COVID breaks.
That leaves State in the position of needing at least three more quality wins. And two of those will have to come in Greensboro. And then they’ll need some bubble luck.
Remember: It’s not just about what your team does but what the other teams on the bubble do, too.
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